Global Markets & Fixed Income
Evening wrap · Europe + US close — updated Fri, Aug 7, 2026 · 8:00 PM (Europe/London).
Top Story
Big July jobs miss knocks Fed hike odds down; stocks and bonds rally into the close
A much weaker-than-expected July payrolls print sharply reduced the odds of a September Fed rate hike, sending both U.S. equities and Treasuries higher (yields lower) while the yen firmed. It reframes the debate from 'will they hike on inflation' to 'is the labor market cooling too fast.'
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Fixed Income — your focus
Treasuries rally as September hike bets fade on weak payrolls
The soft July jobs report pushed traders to price out a near-term Fed hike, lifting Treasury prices across the curve. Supplied levels show the 2Y at 4.18%, 10Y at 4.63% and 30Y at 5.17%.
Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so 'bonds rallied' means yields fell. Weaker jobs data lowers the expected path of Fed policy rates, which pulls yields down — most at the short end (the 2Y), because those maturities track expected rate decisions most closely. Longer bonds (10Y/30Y) have more duration, so a given yield fall produces a bigger price gain there, which is why traders often add duration when they think rate cuts are coming.
Curve stays positively sloped with 2s10s near +45 bp
Using supplied levels, the 10Y (4.63%) sits about 45 bp above the 2Y (4.18%), an upward-sloping curve, with the 30Y up at 5.17%.
An upward-sloping curve means longer loans to the government pay more than short ones — normal in a healthy expansion. When soft data raises expectations of future rate cuts, the short end usually falls faster than the long end, 'steepening' the curve (a bull steepener). Beginners watch the curve because a flat or inverted curve (short yields above long) has historically signaled recession worries.
IG credit spreads hold tight at 78 bp
The supplied investment-grade option-adjusted spread is 78 bp, a historically tight level, as risk appetite improved alongside the equity and bond rally.
A credit spread is the extra yield a company pays over a comparable Treasury to compensate for default risk. Tight (small) spreads mean investors are relaxed about defaults and demand little extra reward — typical when growth fears are mild and sentiment is risk-on. If the labor-market slowdown were seen as recessionary, spreads would usually widen (bond prices of riskier issuers falling); the fact they stayed tight suggests markets read the jobs miss as rate-friendly, not crisis-signaling.
BoJ reviews how its smaller JGB purchases are reshaping the bond market
A Bank of Japan research review examined the market impact of the BoJ scaling back its Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases, a key driver of Japan's yield levels and one to watch in the overnight Asian session.
When a central bank buys fewer bonds, it removes a large, price-insensitive buyer, so private investors must absorb more supply — that typically pushes JGB prices down and yields up. Higher JGB yields matter globally because they can make Japanese investors bring money home rather than buy foreign bonds, and they raise the cost of the yen 'carry trade' (borrowing cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding assets abroad). Beginners should watch JGB yields overnight as a barometer for global bond and currency moves.
NY Fed survey: one-year inflation expectations ease to 3.6%
The New York Fed's consumer survey showed one-year-ahead inflation expectations dipping to 3.6% from 3.7%, with three-year (3.3%) and five-year (3.0%) readings unchanged.
Bond investors care intensely about inflation expectations because inflation erodes the fixed coupons a bond pays. When expected inflation drifts lower, investors accept lower yields — supportive for bond prices — and it strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rather than hike. Well-anchored longer-term expectations (the steady 3-year and 5-year here) are what central banks watch most, since they signal credibility.
Central Banks & Policy
Fed's Cook says she's 'prepared to act' with a hike on inflation
Governor Cook, part of the 9-3 majority that held rates at 3.50%–3.75% last week, signaled readiness to raise rates to address inflation — a hawkish counterpoint to today's soft-jobs, rate-cut-leaning market reaction.
Philadelphia Fed's Paulson content with rates but open-minded
Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said backing the hold last week was an easy call, while keeping an open mind on future moves — underscoring a divided but patient FOMC.
Warsh weighs fewer Fed meetings; markets brace for volatility
Under Chair Warsh, the Fed is contemplating fewer scheduled meetings and other changes, which markets fear could concentrate policy surprises and raise rate volatility.
ECB publishes end-March 2026 consolidated banking data
The ECB released its consolidated banking statistics for end-March 2026, a routine but useful health check on euro-area bank balance sheets.
Equities & Global Markets
S&P 500 pushes toward a record close as jobs miss fuels rate-cut hopes
U.S. equities rallied into the close, with the S&P 500 approaching a record high, helped by softer rate expectations and a strong quarter from Atlassian; Corning also had a standout day.
Gold set for best week since January; oil firms on Hormuz risk
Gold headed for its strongest week since January as inflation fears ebbed, while oil rose on Middle East supply worries after an Iran proposal to bar 'hostile' vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Middle East turmoil escalates; Hormuz and Black Sea rattle trade
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan pledged mutual defence as regional tensions rose, with ADNOC reporting vessel and staff attacks disrupting operations — keeping an energy-price risk premium in markets.
Asia & China
China tourism price wars dim a rare consumer bright spot
China's domestic tourism is underperforming, with hotel revenues falling and room-rate price wars signaling soft demand — a fresh sign of weak consumer momentum.
Watch JGBs overnight as BoJ trims bond buying
With the BoJ reducing JGB purchases, the Asian session's move in Japanese yields and the yen is a key overnight signal after the yen bounced on the U.S. jobs miss.
UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE
Gilts likely to take their cue from the global bond rally
No fresh UK-specific gilt level was supplied today, but a soft U.S. jobs report that lifted global bonds typically pulls UK gilt yields lower too, given how closely major sovereign markets move together.
UK gilts don't trade in isolation: when U.S. Treasuries rally (yields fall), gilt yields often follow because global investors compare sovereign bonds against each other. Lower yields mean higher gilt prices, and longer-dated gilts — with more duration — gain the most. For a beginner, the key link is that softer growth/inflation signals abroad tend to ease expectations for the Bank of England's rate path, and gilt yields adjust accordingly; tomorrow's read-across from the overnight moves is worth watching.
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