Global Markets & Fixed Income
Evening wrap · Europe + US close — updated Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 8:00 PM (Europe/London).
Top Story
Soft July jobs report drives a Treasury rally and knocks back Fed hike bets into the new week
A big miss in July US payrolls pushed traders to price out the chance of a September Fed rate hike, sending US stocks and bonds higher and the dollar lower as the week closed. Attention now turns to Wednesday's July US CPI, the next big test for rates.
You're reading the newest edition — Evening wrap · Europe + US close, updated Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 8:00 PM. The archive keeps the previous 7 days (three editions a day) if you want to look back at how a story developed.
Browse past briefs →Where to look next
News Digest
The full brief, split by asset type.
Fixed Income — your focus
Treasuries rallied as a weak jobs report cooled hike expectations
A soft July payrolls print sent US government bonds higher into the close, with the benchmark 10Y last supplied at 4.69% and the 2Y at 4.25%. A weaker labour market undercuts the case some Fed members had made for raising rates.
Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so when investors buy Treasuries the price rises and the yield falls. Weak jobs data makes rate hikes less likely, which is bullish for bonds — traders bid up prices (especially longer-dated bonds, which have more 'duration' and so gain most when yields drop). This is an explanation of the typical mechanic, not a recommendation.
A steep, positively-sloped curve: 2s at 4.25%, 10s at 4.69%, 30s at 5.22%
The supplied levels show short yields well below long yields — a normal, upward-sloping curve where investors demand more yield to lend for longer. The gap between 2Y and 30Y is nearly a full percentage point.
The 'yield curve' plots yields across maturities. When short rates sit below long rates (as here), it's called a positive or steep curve, and it often reflects expectations that policy rates could eventually fall or that long-term inflation/supply risk needs extra compensation. Beginners watch the 2s10s gap: a widening (steepening) after weak data is typical because the short end drops fastest on lower rate-hike odds.
IG credit spreads stayed tight at 78bp as risk appetite held firm
The US investment-grade option-adjusted spread was supplied at 78 basis points, a historically narrow level, alongside record equity highs and a subdued VIX.
A credit spread is the extra yield a corporate bond pays over a comparable-maturity Treasury to compensate for default risk. Tight spreads (like 78bp) signal investors are relaxed about corporate risk and hungry for yield. When spreads widen, corporate bond prices fall relative to Treasuries; when they tighten, corporates outperform. Beginners use spreads as a stress gauge — the tighter, the calmer the market's mood.
Demand for CLO exposure via ETFs grows as rate uncertainty lingers
Collateralized loan obligations are being pitched as a next big push for the ETF industry, giving retail investors access to floating-rate loan risk amid uncertainty over the Fed's path.
CLOs bundle floating-rate corporate loans, so their coupons reset with short-term rates rather than being fixed. That means they carry very little duration — their prices barely move when Treasury yields shift — but they carry more credit risk. Investors typically favour floating-rate/CLO exposure when rate direction is uncertain, because it trades interest-rate risk for credit risk. Educational, not advice.
Heavy data slate to watch: US CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday, retail sales Friday
Newsquawk's week ahead flags US July CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu) and retail sales plus Michigan sentiment (Fri), alongside an RBA decision (Tue) and Norges Bank (Thu) — all potential yield movers.
Inflation data is the single biggest driver of government bond yields. A hotter-than-expected CPI typically pushes yields up (bond prices down) because it revives rate-hike fears; a cooler print does the opposite. Beginners should note bonds often trade nervously and with lighter conviction right before a CPI release, then move sharply once the number lands.
Central Banks & Policy
September hike odds tumble after jobs miss, even as some hawks stay wary
Markets sharply cut the probability of a September Fed hike following weak July payrolls; the Fed last kept its target range at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote. Governor Cook said days earlier she was 'prepared to act' on a hike to fight inflation driven partly by higher energy prices.
Warsh-led Fed weighs fewer meetings; markets brace for volatility
Under Chair Warsh, the Fed is contemplating a reduced meeting schedule and other cultural changes, which some strategists warn could concentrate policy surprises and lift market volatility.
ECB deposit rate at 2.25%; publishes end-March 2026 banking data
The ECB's deposit rate stands at 2.25% per the supplied levels, and the central bank released consolidated euro-area banking statistics for end-March 2026.
BoJ Summary of Opinions and RBA decision headline the overnight/Asian calendar
The BoJ's Summary of Opinions and an RBA rate announcement are on tap early in the week, key events for the Asian session after the yen bounced on the softer dollar.
Equities & Global Markets
S&P 500 hit records this week as options activity surged and the VIX cooled
A record-breaking week for options helped drive the S&P 500 to new highs, with the volatility gauge near a 2026 low. The soft jobs data added fuel by dialling back rate-hike fears.
Berkshire earnings rise as new CEO Greg Abel starts deploying cash
Berkshire Hathaway posted higher quarterly earnings on strength in energy, railroad and manufacturing, and CEO Greg Abel has begun putting the company's large cash pile to work.
Brent firmed on Middle East risk; Citi trims Q3 forecast to $80
Brent crude climbed about $1 amid uncertainty over the end of the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz tensions, even as Citi revised its Q3 2026 Brent forecast down to $80/bbl.
Asia & China
China July factory-gate deflation eases to a 3-month low as CPI slows
China's producer-price deflation narrowed to a three-month low in July while consumer inflation cooled, underscoring soft demand pressures in the world's second-largest economy.
Yen bounced back as the dollar sagged on pushed-out Fed hike bets
The yen rebounded and the dollar fell after weak US jobs data lowered expectations for further Fed tightening, setting the tone into the Asian session.
Strait of Hormuz tensions and a new Sunni defence pact keep energy risk elevated
Iran signalled a Hormuz deal is 'close' but not enough to reopen the waterway, while Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan pledged mutual defence — developments that keep oil-supply risk in focus for Asian markets.
UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE
UK GDP (Q2) on Thursday is the key domestic test for gilts
The week ahead features UK second-quarter GDP on Thursday, a data point that shapes expectations for the Bank of England's next moves and, in turn, gilt yields. (No UK 10Y gilt level was supplied for today's snapshot.)
Gilts are UK government bonds, and their yields move inversely to their prices. Stronger-than-expected GDP tends to push gilt yields up (prices down), because a robust economy makes BoE rate cuts less likely; weak GDP typically does the reverse. Beginners can think of growth data as a clue to the future path of Bank Rate, which anchors where gilt yields settle. Educational, not a recommendation.
Global bond rally and softer US rate bets set a supportive backdrop for gilts
The Treasury rally on weak US jobs and a softer dollar can spill over into other government bond markets, including UK gilts, since major sovereign yields often move together.
Global bond markets are linked: when US Treasury yields fall on dovish news, that momentum frequently carries into gilts and Bunds, pulling their yields lower too. This happens because international investors compare yields across countries and shift money accordingly. A beginner takeaway is that gilts don't trade in isolation — a big move in US rates is one of the first things a UK bond trader watches. Educational, not advice.
Bonds & Rates
Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.
Government bond yields
Policy rates & credit spreads
Bond prices — funds & ETFs
Oil & Energy
The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.
Crude benchmarks
Refined products & gas
Energy funds
Equities
Global and US index levels.
Index levels
My Portfolio
The two positions you actually hold.