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Global Markets & Fixed Income

Evening wrap · Europe + US close — updated Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 8:00 PM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Soft July jobs report drives a Treasury rally and knocks back Fed hike bets into the new week

A big miss in July US payrolls pushed traders to price out the chance of a September Fed rate hike, sending US stocks and bonds higher and the dollar lower as the week closed. Attention now turns to Wednesday's July US CPI, the next big test for rates.

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News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

Treasuries rallied as a weak jobs report cooled hike expectations

A soft July payrolls print sent US government bonds higher into the close, with the benchmark 10Y last supplied at 4.69% and the 2Y at 4.25%. A weaker labour market undercuts the case some Fed members had made for raising rates.

How traders might react & why

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so when investors buy Treasuries the price rises and the yield falls. Weak jobs data makes rate hikes less likely, which is bullish for bonds — traders bid up prices (especially longer-dated bonds, which have more 'duration' and so gain most when yields drop). This is an explanation of the typical mechanic, not a recommendation.

Curve · US Treasuries

A steep, positively-sloped curve: 2s at 4.25%, 10s at 4.69%, 30s at 5.22%

The supplied levels show short yields well below long yields — a normal, upward-sloping curve where investors demand more yield to lend for longer. The gap between 2Y and 30Y is nearly a full percentage point.

How traders might react & why

The 'yield curve' plots yields across maturities. When short rates sit below long rates (as here), it's called a positive or steep curve, and it often reflects expectations that policy rates could eventually fall or that long-term inflation/supply risk needs extra compensation. Beginners watch the 2s10s gap: a widening (steepening) after weak data is typical because the short end drops fastest on lower rate-hike odds.

Credit · Investment Grade

IG credit spreads stayed tight at 78bp as risk appetite held firm

The US investment-grade option-adjusted spread was supplied at 78 basis points, a historically narrow level, alongside record equity highs and a subdued VIX.

How traders might react & why

A credit spread is the extra yield a corporate bond pays over a comparable-maturity Treasury to compensate for default risk. Tight spreads (like 78bp) signal investors are relaxed about corporate risk and hungry for yield. When spreads widen, corporate bond prices fall relative to Treasuries; when they tighten, corporates outperform. Beginners use spreads as a stress gauge — the tighter, the calmer the market's mood.

Credit · Structured

Demand for CLO exposure via ETFs grows as rate uncertainty lingers

Collateralized loan obligations are being pitched as a next big push for the ETF industry, giving retail investors access to floating-rate loan risk amid uncertainty over the Fed's path.

How traders might react & why

CLOs bundle floating-rate corporate loans, so their coupons reset with short-term rates rather than being fixed. That means they carry very little duration — their prices barely move when Treasury yields shift — but they carry more credit risk. Investors typically favour floating-rate/CLO exposure when rate direction is uncertain, because it trades interest-rate risk for credit risk. Educational, not advice.

Rates · Week ahead

Heavy data slate to watch: US CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday, retail sales Friday

Newsquawk's week ahead flags US July CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu) and retail sales plus Michigan sentiment (Fri), alongside an RBA decision (Tue) and Norges Bank (Thu) — all potential yield movers.

How traders might react & why

Inflation data is the single biggest driver of government bond yields. A hotter-than-expected CPI typically pushes yields up (bond prices down) because it revives rate-hike fears; a cooler print does the opposite. Beginners should note bonds often trade nervously and with lighter conviction right before a CPI release, then move sharply once the number lands.

Central Banks & Policy

FOMC

September hike odds tumble after jobs miss, even as some hawks stay wary

Markets sharply cut the probability of a September Fed hike following weak July payrolls; the Fed last kept its target range at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote. Governor Cook said days earlier she was 'prepared to act' on a hike to fight inflation driven partly by higher energy prices.

Fed · Governance

Warsh-led Fed weighs fewer meetings; markets brace for volatility

Under Chair Warsh, the Fed is contemplating a reduced meeting schedule and other cultural changes, which some strategists warn could concentrate policy surprises and lift market volatility.

ECB

ECB deposit rate at 2.25%; publishes end-March 2026 banking data

The ECB's deposit rate stands at 2.25% per the supplied levels, and the central bank released consolidated euro-area banking statistics for end-March 2026.

Overnight · APAC

BoJ Summary of Opinions and RBA decision headline the overnight/Asian calendar

The BoJ's Summary of Opinions and an RBA rate announcement are on tap early in the week, key events for the Asian session after the yen bounced on the softer dollar.

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

S&P 500 hit records this week as options activity surged and the VIX cooled

A record-breaking week for options helped drive the S&P 500 to new highs, with the volatility gauge near a 2026 low. The soft jobs data added fuel by dialling back rate-hike fears.

Earnings

Berkshire earnings rise as new CEO Greg Abel starts deploying cash

Berkshire Hathaway posted higher quarterly earnings on strength in energy, railroad and manufacturing, and CEO Greg Abel has begun putting the company's large cash pile to work.

Commodities

Brent firmed on Middle East risk; Citi trims Q3 forecast to $80

Brent crude climbed about $1 amid uncertainty over the end of the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz tensions, even as Citi revised its Q3 2026 Brent forecast down to $80/bbl.

Asia & China

Macro

China July factory-gate deflation eases to a 3-month low as CPI slows

China's producer-price deflation narrowed to a three-month low in July while consumer inflation cooled, underscoring soft demand pressures in the world's second-largest economy.

FX · Yen

Yen bounced back as the dollar sagged on pushed-out Fed hike bets

The yen rebounded and the dollar fell after weak US jobs data lowered expectations for further Fed tightening, setting the tone into the Asian session.

Geopolitics

Strait of Hormuz tensions and a new Sunni defence pact keep energy risk elevated

Iran signalled a Hormuz deal is 'close' but not enough to reopen the waterway, while Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan pledged mutual defence — developments that keep oil-supply risk in focus for Asian markets.

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

UK GDP (Q2) on Thursday is the key domestic test for gilts

The week ahead features UK second-quarter GDP on Thursday, a data point that shapes expectations for the Bank of England's next moves and, in turn, gilt yields. (No UK 10Y gilt level was supplied for today's snapshot.)

How traders might react & why

Gilts are UK government bonds, and their yields move inversely to their prices. Stronger-than-expected GDP tends to push gilt yields up (prices down), because a robust economy makes BoE rate cuts less likely; weak GDP typically does the reverse. Beginners can think of growth data as a clue to the future path of Bank Rate, which anchors where gilt yields settle. Educational, not a recommendation.

Gilts · Global spillover

Global bond rally and softer US rate bets set a supportive backdrop for gilts

The Treasury rally on weak US jobs and a softer dollar can spill over into other government bond markets, including UK gilts, since major sovereign yields often move together.

How traders might react & why

Global bond markets are linked: when US Treasury yields fall on dovish news, that momentum frequently carries into gilts and Bunds, pulling their yields lower too. This happens because international investors compare yields across countries and shift money accordingly. A beginner takeaway is that gilts don't trade in isolation — a big move in US rates is one of the first things a UK bond trader watches. Educational, not advice.

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.71%
▼ -2 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.36%
▼ -3 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.66%
▼ -1 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.21%
▼ -0 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 8:00 PM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.25%
policy-sensitive short end
US IG OAS
78 bp
investment-grade credit spread
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
target range 3.50%-3.75%
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
ECB policy floor

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$81.92
▲ +0.15%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.17
▲ +0.24%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$82.76
▲ +0.29%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.60
▲ +0.17%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$107.08
▲ +0.20%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.55
▲ +0.18%
High yield (HYG)
$79.61
▲ +0.19%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.67
▲ +0.10%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.66% ▼ -1 bp
3mo range · 4.36%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$83.55
▲ +1.29%
WTI Crude
$78.18
▲ +1.15%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$2.99
▲ +1.59%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$3.90
▲ +0.52%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.66
▲ +0.83%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$117.98
▼ -0.75%
Brent fund (BNO)
$46.93
▼ -0.93%
Energy sector (XLE)
$57.50
▼ -1.13%
Brent Crude
$83.55 ▲ +1.29%
3mo range · $71.57–$112.10

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,757.64
▲ +0.62%
Dow Jones
54,036.93
▲ +0.28%
Nasdaq Composite
26,690.62
▲ +1.30%
Nasdaq-100
29,722.30
▲ +1.19%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
12,356.79
▲ +2.56%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Sun, Aug 9, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$29.43
▲ +0.84%
HGRAF
$4.84
▲ +21.00%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$29.43 ▲ +0.84%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.84 ▲ +21.00%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.19