Latest brief

Global Markets & Fixed Income

Midday update — updated Mon, Aug 10, 2026 · 1:00 PM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Weak July jobs report reshapes the Fed picture; bonds rally, dollar slips

A big miss in July US payrolls has pushed traders to price out a near-term Fed rate hike, sending Treasury prices up (yields down) and the dollar lower — the dominant theme carrying into today's European session and US open.

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News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

Treasuries hold onto rally as Fed hike bets fade

After Friday's weak July payrolls, markets have pushed out the chance of a September Fed hike, and that lower-rates view is still supporting Treasury prices into the US open, with the 2Y around 4.25% and the 30Y near 5.22%.

How traders might react & why

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. When traders expect the Fed to keep rates lower for longer, they buy bonds, pushing prices up and yields down. Short-dated notes like the 2Y react most to Fed expectations, while the long 30Y moves more on growth and inflation views — a beginner's clue to why the two ends of the curve don't always move by the same amount.

Curve · US

Curve stays steep with 2s30s near 97bp

With the 2Y at 4.25% and the 30Y at 5.22%, the gap between short and long yields is close to a full percentage point — a steep curve shape reinforced by markets leaning toward an easier Fed path.

How traders might react & why

A 'steepening' curve — where long yields sit well above short yields — often happens when traders expect rate cuts (pulling the short end down) or worry about long-term inflation and supply (holding the long end up). For a beginner, the curve's slope is a quick read on where the market thinks policy and growth are heading.

Credit · Structured

Rate uncertainty fuels demand for CLO ETFs

With the rate outlook cloudy, investors are increasingly turning to collateralized loan obligation (CLO) exposure via ETFs, which CNBC flags as a growing corner of the fund industry.

How traders might react & why

CLOs bundle floating-rate loans, so their coupons reset with short-term rates — that appeals when investors are unsure whether rates will rise or fall. Beginners should note this is different from fixed-coupon bonds, whose prices swing with rates (duration risk); floating-rate products carry less duration but more credit risk, so they behave differently when spreads widen.

Central Banks & Policy

FOMC

Fed's Cook keeps hike option alive despite dovish market shift

Governor Cook said she is 'prepared to act' with a hike to fight inflation, having been part of the 9-3 majority that held rates at 3.5%-3.75% last week — a hawkish counterpoint to the market's post-jobs dovish tilt.

Fed · Structure

Warsh Fed weighs fewer meetings; markets brace for volatility

Under Chair Warsh, the Fed is considering holding fewer policy meetings, a change CNBC warns could concentrate market-moving decisions and raise volatility around each announcement.

ECB

ECB steady with deposit rate at 2.25% as data trickle in

The ECB's deposit rate sits at 2.25%, and today's release of end-March 2026 consolidated banking data offers a health check on euro-area lenders rather than a policy signal.

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

Global stocks tick up; Santoli says July's pain may not be over

Equities firmed into the US open with oil steady, but CNBC's Santoli cautions that July's brief sell-off may not have fully cleared the market's risks even as stocks return to winning form.

Movers

Premarket movers and a wave of M&A deals hit the tape

Apple, Intel, GameStop and Berkshire were among the biggest premarket movers, while fresh takeovers — MarineMax, Bowman Consulting, Teledyne/Varex and Ryman Hospitality — signal busy deal activity.

Europe · Sentiment

Euro-area investor confidence turns positive in August

The Sentix investor confidence index jumped to +0.9 in August (from -3.1, versus -0.5 expected), its first positive reading since February — a fresh data point brightening the European session.

Asia & China

Macro

China inflation cools: factory-gate prices at 3-month low, CPI slows

July producer-price inflation eased to a three-month low and consumer inflation slowed, keeping deflationary pressure in focus for the world's second-largest economy.

Energy

China absorbing Asia's crude demand as Hormuz risk lingers

Reuters reports China is balancing Asia's crude oil demand largely on its own, while oil edged higher after Iran tempered hopes of a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

Gilts take their cue from the global bond rally

With no fresh UK data on the tape this midday, gilts are being led by the global move: the soft US jobs report and calmer rate expectations abroad tend to pull UK yields lower alongside Treasuries and Bunds.

How traders might react & why

Government bond markets are closely linked, so when US Treasuries rally (yields fall), UK gilt yields often drift down too as global investors reprice rate expectations together. For a beginner: a gilt's price rises when its yield falls, and longer-dated gilts move most because their higher 'duration' makes them more sensitive to each shift in yield.

Gilts · FX link

Weaker dollar eases pressure on UK bonds

The dollar slipped after US jobs data pushed out Fed hike bets, a backdrop that generally relieves pressure on sterling assets including gilts during the European session.

How traders might react & why

A softer dollar and lower expected US rates reduce the yield advantage of holding US bonds, which can nudge global money toward other markets like gilts, supporting their prices. Beginners can think of it through the 'carry trade': when the gap between US and UK rates narrows, the incentive to borrow cheap and chase higher US yields fades, and cross-border flows shift accordingly.

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Mon, Aug 10, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.71%
▼ -2 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.36%
▼ -3 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.66%
▼ -1 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.21%
▼ -0 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Mon, Aug 10, 2026 · 1:00 PM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.25%
▼ yields lower after soft jobs data
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
held at last meeting
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
policy on hold
US IG credit spread (OAS)
78 bp
spreads tight, risk calm

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Mon, Aug 10, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$81.92
▲ +0.15%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.17
▲ +0.24%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$82.76
▲ +0.29%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.60
▲ +0.17%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$107.08
▲ +0.20%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.55
▲ +0.18%
High yield (HYG)
$79.61
▲ +0.19%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.65
▼ -0.18%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.66% ▼ -1 bp
3mo range · 4.36%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Mon, Aug 10, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$84.84
▲ +1.54%
WTI Crude
$79.61
▲ +1.83%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$2.80
▼ -6.27%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.05
▲ +3.74%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.77
▲ +3.98%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$117.98
▼ -0.75%
Brent fund (BNO)
$46.93
▼ -0.93%
Energy sector (XLE)
$57.50
▼ -1.13%
Brent Crude
$84.84 ▲ +1.54%
3mo range · $71.57–$112.10

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Mon, Aug 10, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,757.64
▲ +0.62%
Dow Jones
54,036.93
▲ +0.28%
Nasdaq Composite
26,690.62
▲ +1.30%
Nasdaq-100
29,722.30
▲ +1.19%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
12,356.79
▲ +2.56%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Mon, Aug 10, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$29.89
▲ +1.58%
HGRAF
$4.84
▲ +21.00%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$29.89 ▲ +1.58%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.84 ▲ +21.00%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.19