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Global Markets & Fixed Income

Midday update — updated Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 1:00 PM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Markets mark time into US July CPI — the day's main event

The European session and US pre-open have been calm and slightly firmer, with traders holding fire ahead of the July US inflation report, which economists expect rose only moderately as gasoline prices eased. The number will shape whether the Fed cuts, holds, or (as some hawks want on higher energy prices) even considers hiking.

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Where to look next

News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

Treasuries wait on July CPI after soft jobs report reshaped the Fed path

With US 10Y yields last at 4.72% and 2Y at 4.25%, the market is coiled ahead of today's inflation print; a weak July jobs report earlier this month already knocked back the small chance the Fed hikes in September.

How traders might react & why

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. A cooler-than-expected CPI typically pushes yields DOWN (prices up) because it strengthens the case for the Fed to hold or cut; a hot number pushes yields UP as traders price in tighter policy. Short-dated (2Y) yields react most to Fed-rate expectations, while the 10Y also reflects growth and inflation views — so watch the gap between them for the curve's message. This is an explanation of typical mechanics, not advice.

Credit · Investment Grade

ICE launches US investment-grade bond sale to fund MarketAxess deal

Intercontinental Exchange has begun a US high-grade bond offering to finance its MarketAxess acquisition — a fresh chunk of new supply hitting the corporate market this session.

How traders might react & why

When a company sells new bonds, buyers usually demand a bit of extra yield (a wider 'credit spread' over Treasuries) to absorb the supply, so existing bonds from the same issuer can cheapen slightly. Investment-grade issuers are seen as low default risk, so spreads are typically tight; heavy new-issue days can nudge them wider until demand soaks up the paper. Educational mechanics, not a recommendation.

Credit · Structured (CLOs)

Rate uncertainty stokes ETF demand for CLO exposure

With the Fed path unsettled, collateralized loan obligations are drawing ETF inflows as investors chase floating-rate income — flagged as a potential next big push for the ETF industry.

How traders might react & why

CLOs bundle floating-rate loans, so their coupons rise and fall with short-term rates rather than being locked in. That gives them very low 'duration' — little price sensitivity to rising yields — which is why they attract buyers when the direction of Fed rates is uncertain. The trade-off is credit risk: they hold lower-rated loans, so spreads widen fast if default fears rise. Explanatory only.

Rates · Oil & inflation

Oil firms after fresh Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb ship attacks

New attacks on shipping lifted crude and cut Hormuz traffic to a one-week low, keeping an upside risk to energy costs alive just as US inflation data lands.

How traders might react & why

Higher oil feeds into headline inflation, which matters for bonds because rising inflation erodes the fixed coupons bondholders receive. If traders think energy will keep prices sticky, they tend to sell bonds and push yields up — and it revives the hawkish argument some Fed members made for higher rates. Longer-dated bonds fall most because their far-off cash flows lose the most value to inflation. Mechanics, not advice.

Central Banks & Policy

FOMC

September hike odds have faded — CPI is the next test

Since this morning the picture is unchanged but the catalyst is imminent: the Fed funds upper bound sits at 3.75%, and markets now lean against a September hike after the weak July jobs data, though hawks cite higher energy prices.

BoJ

Bank of Japan publishes fiscal 2025 market operations review

The BoJ released research on its fiscal 2025 market operations and on mapping Japan's manufacturing supply chains — background on how it manages liquidity and views the economy.

ECB

ECB deposit rate steady at 2.25% amid quiet August calendar

No policy change in the European session; the ECB's headlines today were a public concert announcement, leaving the deposit rate at 2.25% as the market's focus stays on US data.

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

European stocks steady and Wall Street futures tick up before CPI

The change since this morning: Europe held steady and US index futures edged higher into the July inflation print, with geopolitics a background worry rather than a driver.

Movers

AI names lead the premarket action

CoreWeave, Super Micro, Nebius and others posted the biggest premarket moves, and Wall Street's endorsement of Nvidia's new AI 'big concept' keeps the tech complex in focus at the US open.

Asia & China

Macro

China's COMAC C919 makes first international commercial flight

China's home-grown jet flew its first scheduled international route, a milestone in COMAC's push to challenge the Boeing-Airbus duopoly and a marker of China's industrial ambitions.

Geopolitics

Iran says it will join the BRICS development bank soon

Iran's central bank governor said the country will join the BRICS-backed bank shortly, part of a broader tilt toward non-Western financial institutions amid ongoing tensions.

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

Quiet UK data day keeps gilts tracking global rate mood

With no fresh UK macro catalyst, gilts are taking their cue from the global bond tone and the looming US CPI; the Bank of England's own update today was a semi-annual FX turnover survey rather than policy news.

How traders might react & why

UK gilt yields don't move in isolation — when US Treasury yields rise or fall on inflation news, gilts usually drift the same way because global bond markets are linked. Remember the price/yield seesaw: if today's US CPI lifts global yields, gilt prices tend to fall, and longer-maturity gilts move most because of their higher duration. On a data-light UK day, gilts mostly 'import' direction from the US. Educational, not advice.

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.73%
▲ +1 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.38%
▼ -2 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.68%
▼ -1 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.24%
▼ -1 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 1:00 PM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.25%
as of Aug 10
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
policy rate
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
policy rate

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$81.87
▲ +0.01%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$92.87
▲ +0.12%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$82.19
▲ +0.16%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.32
▲ +0.08%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$106.89
▲ +0.03%
IG corporates (LQD)
$105.99
▲ +0.03%
High yield (HYG)
$79.51
▲ +0.04%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.66
▲ +0.34%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.68% ▼ -1 bp
3mo range · 4.37%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$89.19
▲ +0.31%
WTI Crude
$83.63
▲ +0.52%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$2.88
▼ -8.14%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.27
▲ +0.37%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.80
▲ +1.19%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$127.61
▲ +1.34%
Brent fund (BNO)
$50.96
▲ +1.70%
Energy sector (XLE)
$60.93
▲ +1.25%
Brent Crude
$89.19 ▲ +0.31%
3mo range · $71.57–$112.10

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,728.20
▼ -0.32%
Dow Jones
53,791.85
▼ -0.34%
Nasdaq Composite
26,445.44
▼ -0.60%
Nasdaq-100
29,525.48
▼ -0.33%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
12,098.47
▲ +0.87%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$30.00
▲ +0.77%
HGRAF
$4.81
▼ -4.18%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$30.00 ▲ +0.77%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.81 ▼ -4.18%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.19