Global Markets & Fixed Income
Midday update — updated Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 1:00 PM (Europe/London).
Top Story
Markets mark time into US July CPI — the day's main event
The European session and US pre-open have been calm and slightly firmer, with traders holding fire ahead of the July US inflation report, which economists expect rose only moderately as gasoline prices eased. The number will shape whether the Fed cuts, holds, or (as some hawks want on higher energy prices) even considers hiking.
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Fixed Income — your focus
Treasuries wait on July CPI after soft jobs report reshaped the Fed path
With US 10Y yields last at 4.72% and 2Y at 4.25%, the market is coiled ahead of today's inflation print; a weak July jobs report earlier this month already knocked back the small chance the Fed hikes in September.
Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. A cooler-than-expected CPI typically pushes yields DOWN (prices up) because it strengthens the case for the Fed to hold or cut; a hot number pushes yields UP as traders price in tighter policy. Short-dated (2Y) yields react most to Fed-rate expectations, while the 10Y also reflects growth and inflation views — so watch the gap between them for the curve's message. This is an explanation of typical mechanics, not advice.
ICE launches US investment-grade bond sale to fund MarketAxess deal
Intercontinental Exchange has begun a US high-grade bond offering to finance its MarketAxess acquisition — a fresh chunk of new supply hitting the corporate market this session.
When a company sells new bonds, buyers usually demand a bit of extra yield (a wider 'credit spread' over Treasuries) to absorb the supply, so existing bonds from the same issuer can cheapen slightly. Investment-grade issuers are seen as low default risk, so spreads are typically tight; heavy new-issue days can nudge them wider until demand soaks up the paper. Educational mechanics, not a recommendation.
Rate uncertainty stokes ETF demand for CLO exposure
With the Fed path unsettled, collateralized loan obligations are drawing ETF inflows as investors chase floating-rate income — flagged as a potential next big push for the ETF industry.
CLOs bundle floating-rate loans, so their coupons rise and fall with short-term rates rather than being locked in. That gives them very low 'duration' — little price sensitivity to rising yields — which is why they attract buyers when the direction of Fed rates is uncertain. The trade-off is credit risk: they hold lower-rated loans, so spreads widen fast if default fears rise. Explanatory only.
Oil firms after fresh Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb ship attacks
New attacks on shipping lifted crude and cut Hormuz traffic to a one-week low, keeping an upside risk to energy costs alive just as US inflation data lands.
Higher oil feeds into headline inflation, which matters for bonds because rising inflation erodes the fixed coupons bondholders receive. If traders think energy will keep prices sticky, they tend to sell bonds and push yields up — and it revives the hawkish argument some Fed members made for higher rates. Longer-dated bonds fall most because their far-off cash flows lose the most value to inflation. Mechanics, not advice.
Central Banks & Policy
September hike odds have faded — CPI is the next test
Since this morning the picture is unchanged but the catalyst is imminent: the Fed funds upper bound sits at 3.75%, and markets now lean against a September hike after the weak July jobs data, though hawks cite higher energy prices.
Bank of Japan publishes fiscal 2025 market operations review
The BoJ released research on its fiscal 2025 market operations and on mapping Japan's manufacturing supply chains — background on how it manages liquidity and views the economy.
ECB deposit rate steady at 2.25% amid quiet August calendar
No policy change in the European session; the ECB's headlines today were a public concert announcement, leaving the deposit rate at 2.25% as the market's focus stays on US data.
Equities & Global Markets
European stocks steady and Wall Street futures tick up before CPI
The change since this morning: Europe held steady and US index futures edged higher into the July inflation print, with geopolitics a background worry rather than a driver.
AI names lead the premarket action
CoreWeave, Super Micro, Nebius and others posted the biggest premarket moves, and Wall Street's endorsement of Nvidia's new AI 'big concept' keeps the tech complex in focus at the US open.
Asia & China
China's COMAC C919 makes first international commercial flight
China's home-grown jet flew its first scheduled international route, a milestone in COMAC's push to challenge the Boeing-Airbus duopoly and a marker of China's industrial ambitions.
Iran says it will join the BRICS development bank soon
Iran's central bank governor said the country will join the BRICS-backed bank shortly, part of a broader tilt toward non-Western financial institutions amid ongoing tensions.
UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE
Quiet UK data day keeps gilts tracking global rate mood
With no fresh UK macro catalyst, gilts are taking their cue from the global bond tone and the looming US CPI; the Bank of England's own update today was a semi-annual FX turnover survey rather than policy news.
UK gilt yields don't move in isolation — when US Treasury yields rise or fall on inflation news, gilts usually drift the same way because global bond markets are linked. Remember the price/yield seesaw: if today's US CPI lifts global yields, gilt prices tend to fall, and longer-maturity gilts move most because of their higher duration. On a data-light UK day, gilts mostly 'import' direction from the US. Educational, not advice.
Bonds & Rates
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Government bond yields
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Bond prices — funds & ETFs
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Crude benchmarks
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Global and US index levels.
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