Global Markets & Fixed Income
Morning brief · Overnight + Asia — updated Wed, Aug 12, 2026 · 7:00 AM (Europe/London).
Top Story
Oil spikes and stocks retreat as US-Iran talks stall and Hormuz stays shut
Crude jumped roughly 5% and Wall Street closed lower after US-Iran negotiations hit a fresh impasse, Iran signalled the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, and new attacks hit shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman. Traders now eye today's US CPI as an energy-driven inflation risk.
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News Digest
The full brief, split by asset type.
Fixed Income — your focus
September Fed hike odds tumble after big July jobs miss
A weak July employment report cut the market-implied odds that the Fed raises rates in September; some officials had wanted hikes because of higher energy prices, but softer jobs data undercuts that case. The 2Y sits at 4.25% versus the 3.75% funds ceiling.
Beginner mechanics: the 2-year yield tracks where traders think the Fed's policy rate is heading. Weak jobs data lowers the expected path of rates, so traders buy short-dated Treasuries — and because bond prices and yields move inversely, buying pushes those yields down. Lower expected policy rates typically steepen the front end and support bond prices across the curve (longer bonds have more 'duration', so they move most for a given yield change).
Treasury curve stays positively sloped ahead of CPI
With the 2Y at 4.25%, 10Y at 4.72% and 30Y at 5.25%, the 2s10s spread is about +47bp — an upward-sloping curve — as an oil-driven inflation scare meets softer growth signals before today's US CPI print.
Beginner mechanics: a positive (upward) curve means longer bonds yield more than shorter ones, compensating investors for locking money up longer and for inflation risk. If CPI comes in hot, traders often sell longer bonds — pushing 10Y and 30Y yields up and steepening the curve — because higher inflation erodes fixed coupons most over long horizons. A soft CPI usually does the reverse. Long-duration bonds swing most in price for the same yield move.
ICE launches US investment-grade bond sale to fund MarketAxess deal
Intercontinental Exchange began a US investment-grade bond offering to finance its acquisition of MarketAxess, adding fresh high-grade supply to the market. IG spreads remain tight at about 78bp over Treasuries.
Beginner mechanics: 'credit spread' is the extra yield a company pays above a same-maturity Treasury to compensate for default risk; a tight 78bp spread signals calm, confident credit conditions. A large new deal means more bonds for sale, so underwriters often price with a small 'new-issue concession' (a touch of extra yield) to attract buyers, which can nudge existing similar bonds slightly cheaper. Because IG bonds carry meaningful duration, their prices also move with the underlying Treasury yield, not just the spread.
CLO exposure eyed as the next big ETF push amid rate uncertainty
With interest-rate uncertainty persisting, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are gaining traction as a possible next wave of ETF products offering higher-yielding credit exposure.
Beginner mechanics: CLOs bundle floating-rate corporate loans, so their coupons reset with short-term rates — that gives them very low duration, meaning their prices barely move when Treasury yields shift. That appeals when investors fear rate volatility but still want yield. The trade-off is credit risk: CLOs sit further down the quality ladder than IG bonds, so their spreads widen (prices fall) faster if the economy weakens.
BoJ releases July money stock data amid heavy overnight statistics flow
The Bank of Japan published its July Money Stock figures and new supply-chain research papers, part of a steady overnight data flow shaping the JGB backdrop.
Beginner mechanics: money-supply and activity data feed the BoJ's policy outlook, which drives JGB yields. Because Japanese yields have long sat near the world's lowest, JGBs anchor global 'carry trades' — investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding US or European bonds. If Japanese data pushes the BoJ toward tighter policy, JGB yields rise (prices fall) and the carry trade gets less attractive, which can pull money back home and ripple through global bond markets.
Central Banks & Policy
Rate-hike debate hinges on jobs versus energy prices
Some Fed members had floated hikes over higher energy costs, but July's soft payrolls weakened that argument; today's CPI is the next key input with the funds ceiling at 3.75%.
BoJ publishes money data and supply-chain research
Overnight, the Bank of Japan released July money stock statistics alongside working papers mapping Japan's manufacturing supply chains and firm spending linkages.
ECB holds deposit rate at 2.25%; publishes banking data
The ECB's deposit rate stands at 2.25% as the bank released consolidated euro-area banking data for end-March 2026 and other routine communications.
Equities & Global Markets
Wall Street closes lower as US-Iran peace optimism fades
US stocks retreated as negotiations stalled and oil rallied, with 'peace fog' clouding sentiment into today's inflation data.
Wall Street backs Nvidia's $500bn AI financing concept, but China risk looms
Jensen Huang is pitching GPUs as long-term collateral to unlock roughly $500bn in AI funding; analysts endorsed the idea while flagging chip-depreciation and China-related risks.
Super Micro, CoreWeave and H&R Block among big after-hours movers
US extended trading saw notable swings in Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave, H&R Block and others as earnings updates rolled in.
Asia & China
EVs keep dominating China's car market in July
China Passenger Car Association data showed new-energy vehicle penetration rose again in July, with Tesla's Model Y still popular alongside BYD, Geely and VW.
Oil edges higher across the Asia-Pacific session
Crude extended gains in Asian trading as Hormuz risk lingered, with regional headlines including Gulf states routing around choke points and Australia setting a gig-worker pay floor.
UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE
UK gilts take their cue from the global oil-and-CPI setup
With no fresh UK gilt auction overnight, sterling bonds are set to trade off the same forces moving Treasuries and Bunds — a rising-oil inflation scare against a softening global growth picture — ahead of today's US CPI.
Beginner mechanics: gilt yields don't move in isolation — UK 10-year yields tend to follow US Treasuries and German Bunds because global investors compare them. If oil-driven inflation fears lift yields abroad, gilt yields usually rise too (so gilt prices fall), and vice versa. Higher expected inflation hurts longer-dated gilts most because their fixed coupons lose more real value over time — that's duration risk in action.
BoE publishes April 2026 FX turnover survey
The Bank of England released results of its semi-annual FX turnover survey, with 25 UK-active institutions reporting on foreign-exchange market activity for April 2026.
Beginner mechanics: FX turnover data is a plumbing report, not a rate decision, so it rarely moves gilts on its own — but currency and bond markets are linked. A weaker pound can raise imported-inflation worries, which pushes the BoE toward keeping rates higher and lifts gilt yields (lowering prices). Watching FX flows helps beginners see how currency moves feed into the inflation outlook that ultimately drives UK bond yields.
Bonds & Rates
Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.
Government bond yields
Policy rates & credit spreads
Bond prices — funds & ETFs
Oil & Energy
The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.
Crude benchmarks
Refined products & gas
Energy funds
Equities
Global and US index levels.
Index levels
My Portfolio
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