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Global Markets & Fixed Income

Evening wrap · Europe + US close — updated Thu, Aug 13, 2026 · 8:00 PM (Europe/London).

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Driving everything

US 30-year auction tails as long-bond yields hold near 5.24%

The Treasury sold 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.216%, above the 5.212% 'when-issued' level, a small tail that earned the auction a weak 'C-' grade even as broader Treasury yields dipped into the close ahead of Friday-watched wholesale inflation data.

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News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

30-year auction tails at 5.216% with soft demand

The high yield of 5.216% came above the when-issued level (a 0.4bp tail vs a -0.2bp average), bid-to-cover slipped to 2.39x from 2.43x, and dealers were left with more bonds than usual — earning a 'C-' grade.

How traders might react & why

A 'tail' means buyers demanded a slightly higher yield (lower price) than the market expected just before the sale — a sign of soft demand. Beginners should note the price/yield seesaw: when a poor auction pushes yields up, the price of existing long bonds falls. Because a 30-year bond has very high 'duration' (sensitivity to yield moves), even small yield changes swing its price a lot, so weak long-end auctions tend to nudge long yields higher and can steepen the curve.

Rates · US Treasuries

10Y yield eases toward 4.67% before inflation data

The 10-year note yield fell over a basis point to around 4.674% as investors positioned ahead of wholesale (PPI) inflation figures; the last supplied benchmark level was 4.70%.

How traders might react & why

When traders expect cooler inflation, they are more willing to hold bonds at lower yields, and buying pushes prices up and yields down (the inverse relationship). Lower expected inflation protects a bond's fixed coupons from being eroded, so 'good' inflation news typically rallies bonds. Watch that this is the benchmark for mortgage and corporate borrowing costs.

Curve · US

Curve stays steep: 2s near 4.22%, 30s near 5.24%

With the 2-year around 4.22% and the 30-year around 5.24%, the gap between short and long yields is wide — a roughly 100bp+ 2s30s slope.

How traders might react & why

The 'yield curve' plots yields across maturities. A steep, upward-sloping curve means long bonds pay much more than short ones, usually reflecting expectations of future rate cuts and/or extra compensation ('term premium') for the risk of holding long. Short yields are pinned near the Fed's policy rate; long yields move more on growth, inflation and supply (like today's auction).

Credit · IG spreads

Investment-grade spreads hold tight at 79bp

The US investment-grade option-adjusted spread sits at 79 basis points, a historically tight level signalling calm credit conditions despite geopolitical noise.

How traders might react & why

A credit spread is the extra yield a company must pay over a same-maturity Treasury to compensate for default risk. Tight spreads (like 79bp) mean investors are relaxed and demand little extra to lend to companies; widening spreads would signal fear. For a beginner: falling spreads generally lift corporate bond prices relative to Treasuries, while risk-off shocks widen them.

Supply · US fiscal

July budget deficit widens on higher outlays

The US budget deficit grew in July as spending rose and tariff receipts turned negative, keeping the government's borrowing needs — and Treasury supply — in focus.

How traders might react & why

Bigger deficits mean the Treasury must issue more bonds. More supply, all else equal, pushes prices down and yields up unless demand keeps pace — one reason today's soft 30-year auction matters. Beginners can link this to the term premium: persistent heavy issuance can raise the extra yield investors demand to hold longer-dated debt.

Central Banks & Policy

ECB

ECB seen delivering a final hike next month

Reuters reports the ECB is set to deliver one more rate increase in September, capping the shortest tightening cycle since 2011; the deposit rate currently stands at 2.25%.

FOMC

Fed on hold at 3.75% as rate-cut/hike bets shift

With the Fed funds upper bound at 3.75%, markets pared rate-hike bets and eyed inflation data, driving debate over the Fed's next move via gold and rates positioning.

Fed · Supervision

Fed issues enforcement action tied to Regions Bank

The Federal Reserve Board announced an enforcement action against a former employee of Regions Bank, part of its routine supervisory duties.

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

Stocks close higher as rate-hike bets ease

Global equities rose as traders trimmed expectations for further rate hikes and oil prices fell, easing pressure on inflation-sensitive sectors.

Single stocks

Ackman rebuilds Netflix stake; Cisco slips on earnings

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a new Netflix position saying it 'won the streaming wars,' while Cisco shares fell after results even as July PPI came in mostly cooler than expected.

AI

'Big Short' Eisman flags AI's concentration risk

Steve Eisman warned the AI boom is increasingly dependent on just two firms, OpenAI and Anthropic, even as Wall Street endorses Nvidia's latest funding 'concept.'

Commodities

Oil drops over 3% on demand worries and US crude build

Crude fell more than 3% on a weaker global demand outlook and a US inventory buildup, helping cool inflation fears despite Middle East supply risks.

Asia & China

Macro · Japan

Japan July producer prices (CGPI) released

The Bank of Japan published its July Corporate Goods Price Index, a key gauge of wholesale/producer inflation that feeds into expectations for future BoJ policy.

Rates · JGBs

BoJ updates its JGB holdings data

The Bank of Japan released its monthly statistics on Japanese Government Bonds held by the central bank, a window into the pace of its balance-sheet holdings.

Geopolitics

Iran to join BRICS New Development Bank as US war drags on

Iran's central bank chief said the country is set to join the BRICS New Development Bank, deepening economic ties with the bloc amid its ongoing conflict with the US.

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

BoE publishes April 2026 FX turnover survey

The Bank of England released results of the semi-annual FX turnover survey covering 25 UK-active institutions; no fresh UK gilt benchmark level was supplied for tonight's wrap.

How traders might react & why

This is a plumbing/market-structure update rather than a rate move, so it rarely shifts gilt yields directly. For beginners: gilts are UK government bonds, and their yields mainly track BoE policy-rate expectations and inflation. When you see spillover from higher US and euro-area yields, UK gilt prices often move in sympathy — remember the price/yield inverse, and that longer gilts (higher duration) swing most.

Gilts · Global spillover

UK gilts take cues from soft US long-bond demand

With the US 30-year auction tailing and euro-area yields underpinned by ECB hike expectations, UK gilts face the same global backdrop of firm long-end yields even absent a UK-specific catalyst today.

How traders might react & why

Global bond markets are linked, so a weak US long-bond auction or higher Bund/Treasury yields can drag gilt yields up too, pulling gilt prices down. A beginner mechanic to watch is the 'carry trade': investors compare yields across countries, and if UK yields lag while others rise, gilts can look relatively less attractive and cheapen. Higher long yields hit long-duration gilts hardest.

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Thu, Aug 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.71%
▼ -0 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.31%
▼ -6 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.64%
▼ -5 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.21%
▼ -4 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Thu, Aug 13, 2026 · 8:00 PM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.22%
▼ front-end anchored to Fed
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
policy rate on hold
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
one more hike flagged
US IG OAS
79 bp
investment-grade spreads tight

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Thu, Aug 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$82.03
▲ +0.13%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.32
▲ +0.39%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$82.58
▲ +0.57%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.72
▲ +0.29%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$107.16
▲ +0.22%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.56
▲ +0.42%
High yield (HYG)
$79.78
▲ +0.21%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.64
▲ +0.10%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.64% ▼ -5 bp
3mo range · 4.37%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Thu, Aug 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$87.00
▼ -2.23%
WTI Crude
$81.16
▼ -2.53%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$2.86
▼ -9.32%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.12
▼ -4.25%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.72
▼ -2.85%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$124.76
▼ -2.00%
Brent fund (BNO)
$49.69
▼ -2.04%
Energy sector (XLE)
$60.92
▼ -0.17%
Brent Crude
$87.00 ▼ -2.23%
3mo range · $71.57–$112.10

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Thu, Aug 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,801.80
▲ +0.69%
Dow Jones
53,791.20
▲ +0.04%
Nasdaq Composite
26,837.22
▲ +0.94%
Nasdaq-100
30,144.46
▲ +1.35%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
12,600.71
▲ +1.62%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Thu, Aug 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$30.27
▲ +2.21%
HGRAF
$4.41
▼ -3.50%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$30.27 ▲ +2.21%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.41 ▼ -3.50%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.13