Global Markets & Fixed Income
Morning brief · Overnight + Asia — updated Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 7:00 AM (Europe/London).
Top Story
Fading US rate-hike bets lift Asia; Treasury yields ease before wholesale inflation data
Asian stocks headed for a weekly gain as traders trimmed bets on further Fed rate hikes, while the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.674% ahead of a key wholesale (PPI) inflation reading. A separate escalation in the US–Iran conflict — including a threatened indefinite naval blockade — kept oil and geopolitics on the radar.
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Fixed Income — your focus
10-year Treasury yield eases to 4.674% before wholesale inflation print
The benchmark 10-year yield fell just over one basis point to 4.674% as Wall Street awaited producer-price (wholesale inflation) data that could shape the Fed's next move.
Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so a small dip in yield means prices ticked up. Beginners: traders often buy Treasuries (pushing yields down) when they expect softer inflation, because lower inflation makes a bond's fixed future coupons worth more. Ahead of an important data release, many stay cautious and only nudge positions — hence the tiny one-basis-point move rather than a big swing.
Markets pare back US rate-hike wagers, supporting global bonds
Reuters reports investors are scaling back expectations of further Fed tightening, a shift that underpinned a weekly gain in Asian equities and kept a floor under bond prices.
When traders expect fewer rate hikes, short-dated yields (like the 2-year, here at 4.20%) tend to fall first because they track expected policy rates most closely. Lower expected policy rates also lift bond prices generally. For a beginner: 'fading hike bets' is usually good news for existing bondholders, since rising rates would otherwise push older, lower-coupon bonds down in price.
Bank of Japan updates JGB holdings and July producer-price data
The BoJ released fresh figures on Japanese Government Bonds held on its balance sheet alongside July's Corporate Goods Price Index (Japan's wholesale inflation gauge), key inputs for the pace of any BoJ policy normalization.
The BoJ owns a huge share of JGBs, so its buying keeps yields low; any hint it will hold fewer bonds can push JGB yields up (and prices down). Wholesale price data matters because higher Japanese inflation raises the chance the BoJ lets yields rise. Beginners should note the 'carry trade' angle: very low JGB yields let investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding bonds abroad, so shifts in Japan ripple into global bond markets.
US curve stays steep with 2s at 4.20% and 30s at 5.24%
The gap between the 2-year (4.20%) and 30-year (5.24%) yields shows a notably upward-sloping curve, with long-dated borrowing costs well above short-term rates.
The 'yield curve' plots yields across maturities. An upward slope means longer bonds pay more, compensating investors for tying up money longer and for inflation risk. For beginners: long bonds have higher 'duration', meaning their prices swing more when yields move — so a rise in the 30-year yield hurts long-bond holders far more than the same move in a 2-year. A steeper curve often signals markets expect steady growth or persistent inflation over time.
Central Banks & Policy
ECB seen delivering a final rate hike next month
Reuters reports the ECB is set to deliver one more rate increase in its shortest tightening cycle since 2011, with the deposit rate currently at 2.25%.
Fed issues enforcement action against former Regions Bank employee
The Federal Reserve Board announced a supervisory enforcement action tied to a former employee of Regions Bank, part of its routine bank-oversight role.
BoJ research maps Japan's manufacturing supply chains
A Bank of Japan working paper analyzes firm-to-firm transaction data to map manufacturing supply chains, offering insight into how shocks propagate through the economy the BoJ is trying to steer.
Equities & Global Markets
Asian shares set for weekly gain as rate-hike fears fade
Regional equities headed for a positive week as investors dialed back US rate-hike expectations, improving risk appetite across Asia.
US profit margins hit record high, fueling stock rally
FactSet data show corporate profit margins at their highest on record, a key driver behind the continued equity rally beyond just sales growth.
Western Union clears NY regulator for Intermex deal; IMXI jumps 35%
New York's Department of Financial Services approved Western Union's pending acquisition of International Money Express, sending Intermex shares sharply higher.
Asia & China
Oil edges up in a quiet Asia-Pacific session
Asia-Pacific trading saw only small moves, with oil ticking higher amid ongoing US–Iran tensions and fresh US tariff headlines on drone imports.
Uber partners with China's Pony.ai for 2,000 robotaxis in Europe
Uber will deploy 2,000 Pony.ai robotaxis in Europe, as Chinese autonomous-driving firms expand internationally and fleet scale becomes key to commercialization.
US–Iran war fuels surge in China's electric-truck exports
Reuters reports the conflict has boosted demand for Chinese electric trucks, driving an export surge as global fuel-supply concerns mount.
UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE
Bank of England publishes April 2026 FX turnover survey
The BoE released results of its semi-annual foreign-exchange turnover survey, with 25 UK-active institutions reporting April 2026 activity — a gauge of liquidity in the market that underpins gilt and cross-border funding flows.
This is market-structure data rather than a rate decision, so it rarely moves gilt yields directly. But for beginners it's worth knowing that deep, liquid FX and funding markets make it cheaper and smoother to trade gilts and hedge them. When liquidity thins, bid-offer spreads widen and yields can become more volatile, which matters for anyone holding UK government bonds.
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