Global Markets & Fixed Income
Morning brief · Overnight + Asia — updated Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 7:00 AM (Europe/London).
Top Story
Treasury yields grind higher as US-Iran tensions and rising oil revive inflation worries
The 10-year US Treasury yield edged up to around 4.66% after Washington threatened Iran with more economic sanctions and oil prices rallied on tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs feed inflation fears, which is dulling market hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts.
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Fixed Income — your focus
10-year yield rises to ~4.66% on Iran sanction threat
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose about 2 basis points to 4.661% as the US threatened Iran with fresh economic sanctions, with our latest supplied close at 4.63%.
Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so a rising yield means bond prices are falling. When geopolitical risk threatens to push up oil and inflation, traders typically demand a higher yield to hold longer-dated bonds (because future fixed coupons buy less if inflation rises). Longer-maturity bonds have higher 'duration', meaning their prices fall more for a given yield rise — that's why the 10Y and 30Y move more than the 2Y.
Curve stays positively sloped: 2Y 4.15% vs 10Y 4.63% vs 30Y 5.21%
Short-dated yields (2Y at 4.15%) sit well below long-dated yields (30Y at 5.21%), leaving the curve upward-sloping as the front-end is anchored by the Fed's 3.75% policy rate while the long-end prices in inflation and supply risk.
The 'yield curve' just plots yields across maturities. A steeper, upward slope (long yields above short yields) often reflects expectations of steady growth/inflation or heavy government bond supply. Because the front-end (2Y) tracks expected Fed policy closely, it moves less on oil headlines; the long-end (30Y) carries more duration and inflation risk, so it typically rises further when inflation fears build.
Investment-grade credit spreads hold tight near 79bp
US investment-grade option-adjusted spreads sit around 79 basis points, a relatively narrow level signalling that corporate credit markets remain calm despite the geopolitical noise.
A credit spread is the extra yield a company pays over a same-maturity Treasury to compensate you for default risk. Tight (low) spreads mean investors are relaxed about defaults and willing to lend cheaply; spreads typically widen (rise) when fear rises, which pushes corporate bond prices down. Holding near 79bp tells a beginner that, so far, the stress is in rates and oil — not in corporate creditworthiness.
ICICI joins Indian banks chasing dollar loans at SOFR +110bp
ICICI Bank launched a roughly $1.45 billion syndicated offshore loan priced at 110 basis points over SOFR, as Indian lenders ramp up demand for dollar funding.
Big borrowers often price debt as a spread over a benchmark rate — here SOFR, the US overnight funding rate. A margin of 110bp over SOFR means the bank pays that reference rate plus 1.10%. When many borrowers rush for dollars at once, it can nudge funding spreads wider; for a beginner, this shows how global credit is priced off US rates, so a higher Fed/SOFR level raises borrowing costs worldwide.
BoJ data and July producer prices in focus for Japan's bond market
The Bank of Japan released updated figures on its huge Japanese Government Bond holdings and July Corporate Goods (producer) prices, key inputs for the outlook on JGB yields and BoJ policy.
The BoJ owns a massive share of JGBs, so its buying keeps yields lower than they would otherwise be; any hint of it stepping back typically lets yields rise (and JGB prices fall). Producer prices are an early inflation signal — hotter readings raise the odds of tighter BoJ policy, which can lift JGB yields and, via the 'carry trade', matter globally: investors who borrow cheap yen to buy higher-yielding foreign bonds may unwind those trades when Japanese yields climb.
Central Banks & Policy
Rate-hike odds fade as US data cools, but oil clouds the cut path
US economic data softened the case for another Fed hike, keeping the funds rate at a 3.75% upper bound, yet the oil-driven inflation risk is complicating expectations for future rate cuts.
Fed issues enforcement action against former Regions Bank employee
The Federal Reserve Board announced an enforcement action involving a former employee of Regions Bank, part of its routine supervisory role.
ECB deposit rate steady at 2.25%
The ECB's deposit rate remains at 2.25%, with the central bank in a quieter August period as European markets digest higher oil prices.
Equities & Global Markets
US stocks finish mixed; Russell 2000 hits a record as yields rise
Wall Street closed the week mixed with the small-cap Russell 2000 setting a record, even as Treasury yields rose and the dollar slipped.
European shares snap four-week rally as oil offsets strong earnings
European equities ended a four-week winning streak as rising oil prices tempered otherwise solid corporate earnings.
Berkshire boosts Alphabet to a top-three holding
Berkshire Hathaway lifted Alphabet to a top-three position worth roughly $37.9 billion and added to Delta and housing bets, per its latest regulatory filing.
Asia & China
Asian stocks rise as cooling US inflation lifts tech
Asian equities gained about 0.5%, extending a fourth straight weekly advance, as easing US inflation boosted technology shares.
Philippines floats joint oil and gas exploration with China
The Philippine president called joint oil and gas exploration with China a 'distinct possibility', a potential thaw in a long-standing South China Sea dispute.
Indian shares end week lower as higher crude weighs
Indian equities finished the week lower as rising crude oil prices dampened risk appetite, while Russia's share of India's July oil imports hit a record high.
UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE
UK rates in the slipstream of higher global yields and oil
With no fresh gilt level in today's data, UK bonds take their cue from the global move higher in yields and the oil-driven inflation risk, while the Bank of England published its April 2026 FX turnover survey.
Gilts are UK government bonds and they tend to move with US Treasuries and Bunds, so when global yields rise, gilt yields usually rise too and gilt prices fall (the price/yield inverse). Higher oil prices raise inflation worries, and since inflation erodes a bond's fixed coupons, traders typically demand higher yields — hitting longer-duration gilts hardest. For a beginner: watch oil and US Treasuries as leading signals for where gilt yields head next.
Bonds & Rates
Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.
Government bond yields
Policy rates & credit spreads
Bond prices — funds & ETFs
Oil & Energy
The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.
Crude benchmarks
Refined products & gas
Energy funds
Equities
Global and US index levels.
Index levels
My Portfolio
The two positions you actually hold.