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Global Markets & Fixed Income

Evening wrap · Europe + US close — updated Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 8:00 PM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Long-end Treasury selloff dominates the close as Fed minutes reveal a hawkish tilt

Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting showed some officials would back a rate HIKE if inflation fails to cool, reinforcing a day defined by rising long-term yields, with the US 30Y at 5.28% and the 10Y at 4.71%. Traders head into the overnight session watching whether the long-bond pressure that is lifting borrowing costs continues to spill into risk assets.

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Where to look next

News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

Long-end selloff lifts 30Y to 5.28%, 10Y to 4.71%

A sustained sell-off in long-dated Treasuries pushed yields higher, with the 30-year at 5.28% and the 10-year at 4.71%, while the 2-year sat lower at 4.19% — a steeper gap between short and long maturities. Analysts tie the move to heavy debt supply, AI-related spending and energy costs.

How traders might react & why

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so 'yields up' means prices fell — holders of long bonds took losses today. Long maturities have high duration, meaning their prices swing much more for the same yield change, which is why the 30Y moves more than the 2Y. When long yields rise faster than short yields, the curve 'steepens' — often a sign investors want more compensation to lend for a long time, whether for inflation risk or the sheer volume of new bonds being issued.

Auctions · TIPS

$9bn 30-year TIPS auction stops through at 2.973%

The US Treasury sold $9 billion of 30-year inflation-protected securities at a high yield of 2.973%, below the 2.991% 'when-issued' level at auction time — a 1.8bp 'stop-through' that signals solid demand.

How traders might react & why

At auction, a lower yield than the pre-sale 'when-issued' level (a 'stop-through') means buyers accepted less compensation than expected — a sign of strong demand. That matters because weak auctions can force yields up across the market; a firm one is reassuring. TIPS pay a real yield on top of inflation, so a ~2.97% real yield tells you investors are demanding meaningful compensation even after inflation protection.

Credit · IG

Investment-grade spreads hold tight at 81bp despite rates volatility

US investment-grade credit spreads (OAS) sat at 81 basis points, a narrow level suggesting corporate credit stress remains muted even as government yields climb.

How traders might react & why

A credit spread is the extra yield a company must pay over a comparable Treasury to compensate for default risk. A tight 81bp spread means investors are relaxed about corporate credit — they aren't demanding much extra to lend to companies. Watch this: when spreads WIDEN, it usually signals rising fear about the economy, and IG bond prices fall on top of any move in the underlying Treasury yield.

Rates · China

Chinese government bonds defy the global yield surge

While yields jumped across the developed world, Chinese government bond yields stayed low, boosting their appeal as a diversifier and relative safe haven.

How traders might react & why

Bond markets don't move in lockstep — each is driven by its own central bank and inflation outlook. China's low, stable yields while others surge means Chinese bonds gained in relative price terms and offered ballast. For a beginner, this shows why global diversification matters: holding bonds from economies at different policy stages can smooth returns when one market sells off.

Central Banks & Policy

FOMC

July minutes reveal a hawkish faction open to a hike

The Fed's July 28-29 minutes showed some officials believed a rate increase could be warranted if inflation does not cool, even as the funds rate holds at 3.75% (upper bound).

ECB

ECB deposit rate steady at 2.25%

The ECB's deposit rate remained at 2.25%, leaving euro-area policy notably easier than the Fed's as European markets closed.

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

Walmart drags retail as Fed minutes and rising yields test stocks

US equities navigated a hawkish Fed read and a long-bond selloff, with Walmart falling on disappointing earnings and analysts split on Merck after a cancer-vaccine breakthrough among the biggest movers.

Energy

Oil hits three-week high on Iran retaliation threats

Crude climbed to a more than three-week high after President Trump threatened Iran-related retaliation, adding an inflation-via-energy angle that bond markets are watching closely.

Asia & China

Macro

China's bonds stand out as global yields surge

Chinese government bond yields stayed low against a rising global backdrop, strengthening the case for China as a portfolio diversifier heading into the Asian session.

Geopolitics · Oil

China lifts Russian crude imports; Aramco diverts barrels to China

China increased purchases of Russian crude — squeezing India's refiners — while Saudi Aramco sold at least 4 million barrels loading outside Hormuz to China, reshaping Asian energy flows amid Iran tensions.

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

No fresh UK data, but the global long-end selloff frames the gilt session

With no UK-specific catalyst on the wires today, gilts trade in the wake of the global surge in long-term government yields led by US Treasuries, keeping the focus on duration risk into tomorrow.

How traders might react & why

UK gilts rarely move in isolation — when US Treasury and German Bund yields rise, gilt yields tend to follow, so gilt prices typically fall on days like this (the price/yield inverse). Long-dated gilts have the most duration, so they take the biggest price hit for a given yield rise. Beginners should note the BoE's policy rate anchors the short end, but global forces and UK issuance drive the long end — which is why a US-led selloff can lift UK borrowing costs even with no domestic news.

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.70%
▲ +0 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.39%
▲ +4 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.70%
▲ +5 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.24%
▲ +5 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 8:00 PM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.19%
policy-sensitive front end
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
policy rate on hold
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
ECB on hold
US IG OAS
81 bp
investment-grade credit spread

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$82.02
▼ -0.05%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.03
▼ -0.38%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$82.44
▼ -0.70%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.53
▼ -0.30%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$107.40
▼ -0.10%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.07
▼ -0.47%
High yield (HYG)
$79.55
▼ -0.20%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.58
▲ +0.13%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.70% ▲ +5 bp
3mo range · 4.37%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$93.77
▲ +2.35%
WTI Crude
$86.89
▲ +1.23%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$3.02
▼ -7.25%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.38
▼ -1.60%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.76
▼ -1.92%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$134.90
▲ +3.05%
Brent fund (BNO)
$53.62
▲ +2.48%
Energy sector (XLE)
$63.84
▲ +0.40%
Brent Crude
$93.77 ▲ +2.35%
3mo range · $71.57–$105.02

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,652.00
▼ -0.73%
Dow Jones
52,795.62
▼ -1.25%
Nasdaq Composite
26,067.23
▼ -1.00%
Nasdaq-100
29,181.17
▼ -0.83%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
11,758.11
▲ +0.17%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$28.80
▼ -1.96%
HGRAF
$4.37
▼ -2.02%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$28.80 ▼ -1.96%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.37 ▼ -2.02%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.13