Latest brief

Global Markets & Fixed Income

Morning brief · Overnight + Asia — updated Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 7:00 AM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Treasury yields grind higher as US-Iran tensions and rising oil revive inflation worries

The 10-year US Treasury yield edged up to around 4.66% after Washington threatened Iran with more economic sanctions and oil prices rallied on tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs feed inflation fears, which is dulling market hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts.

This page is today's brief

You're reading the newest edition — Morning brief · Overnight + Asia, updated Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 7:00 AM. The archive keeps the previous 7 days (three editions a day) if you want to look back at how a story developed.

Browse past briefs →

Where to look next

News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

10-year yield rises to ~4.66% on Iran sanction threat

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose about 2 basis points to 4.661% as the US threatened Iran with fresh economic sanctions, with our latest supplied close at 4.63%.

How traders might react & why

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so a rising yield means bond prices are falling. When geopolitical risk threatens to push up oil and inflation, traders typically demand a higher yield to hold longer-dated bonds (because future fixed coupons buy less if inflation rises). Longer-maturity bonds have higher 'duration', meaning their prices fall more for a given yield rise — that's why the 10Y and 30Y move more than the 2Y.

Rates · Curve

Curve stays positively sloped: 2Y 4.15% vs 10Y 4.63% vs 30Y 5.21%

Short-dated yields (2Y at 4.15%) sit well below long-dated yields (30Y at 5.21%), leaving the curve upward-sloping as the front-end is anchored by the Fed's 3.75% policy rate while the long-end prices in inflation and supply risk.

How traders might react & why

The 'yield curve' just plots yields across maturities. A steeper, upward slope (long yields above short yields) often reflects expectations of steady growth/inflation or heavy government bond supply. Because the front-end (2Y) tracks expected Fed policy closely, it moves less on oil headlines; the long-end (30Y) carries more duration and inflation risk, so it typically rises further when inflation fears build.

Credit · IG spreads

Investment-grade credit spreads hold tight near 79bp

US investment-grade option-adjusted spreads sit around 79 basis points, a relatively narrow level signalling that corporate credit markets remain calm despite the geopolitical noise.

How traders might react & why

A credit spread is the extra yield a company pays over a same-maturity Treasury to compensate you for default risk. Tight (low) spreads mean investors are relaxed about defaults and willing to lend cheaply; spreads typically widen (rise) when fear rises, which pushes corporate bond prices down. Holding near 79bp tells a beginner that, so far, the stress is in rates and oil — not in corporate creditworthiness.

Credit · EM/Bank funding

ICICI joins Indian banks chasing dollar loans at SOFR +110bp

ICICI Bank launched a roughly $1.45 billion syndicated offshore loan priced at 110 basis points over SOFR, as Indian lenders ramp up demand for dollar funding.

How traders might react & why

Big borrowers often price debt as a spread over a benchmark rate — here SOFR, the US overnight funding rate. A margin of 110bp over SOFR means the bank pays that reference rate plus 1.10%. When many borrowers rush for dollars at once, it can nudge funding spreads wider; for a beginner, this shows how global credit is priced off US rates, so a higher Fed/SOFR level raises borrowing costs worldwide.

Rates · JGBs

BoJ data and July producer prices in focus for Japan's bond market

The Bank of Japan released updated figures on its huge Japanese Government Bond holdings and July Corporate Goods (producer) prices, key inputs for the outlook on JGB yields and BoJ policy.

How traders might react & why

The BoJ owns a massive share of JGBs, so its buying keeps yields lower than they would otherwise be; any hint of it stepping back typically lets yields rise (and JGB prices fall). Producer prices are an early inflation signal — hotter readings raise the odds of tighter BoJ policy, which can lift JGB yields and, via the 'carry trade', matter globally: investors who borrow cheap yen to buy higher-yielding foreign bonds may unwind those trades when Japanese yields climb.

Central Banks & Policy

Fed

Rate-hike odds fade as US data cools, but oil clouds the cut path

US economic data softened the case for another Fed hike, keeping the funds rate at a 3.75% upper bound, yet the oil-driven inflation risk is complicating expectations for future rate cuts.

Fed · Supervision

Fed issues enforcement action against former Regions Bank employee

The Federal Reserve Board announced an enforcement action involving a former employee of Regions Bank, part of its routine supervisory role.

ECB

ECB deposit rate steady at 2.25%

The ECB's deposit rate remains at 2.25%, with the central bank in a quieter August period as European markets digest higher oil prices.

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

US stocks finish mixed; Russell 2000 hits a record as yields rise

Wall Street closed the week mixed with the small-cap Russell 2000 setting a record, even as Treasury yields rose and the dollar slipped.

Europe

European shares snap four-week rally as oil offsets strong earnings

European equities ended a four-week winning streak as rising oil prices tempered otherwise solid corporate earnings.

Corporate

Berkshire boosts Alphabet to a top-three holding

Berkshire Hathaway lifted Alphabet to a top-three position worth roughly $37.9 billion and added to Delta and housing bets, per its latest regulatory filing.

Asia & China

Risk

Asian stocks rise as cooling US inflation lifts tech

Asian equities gained about 0.5%, extending a fourth straight weekly advance, as easing US inflation boosted technology shares.

China · Geopolitics

Philippines floats joint oil and gas exploration with China

The Philippine president called joint oil and gas exploration with China a 'distinct possibility', a potential thaw in a long-standing South China Sea dispute.

India

Indian shares end week lower as higher crude weighs

Indian equities finished the week lower as rising crude oil prices dampened risk appetite, while Russia's share of India's July oil imports hit a record high.

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

UK rates in the slipstream of higher global yields and oil

With no fresh gilt level in today's data, UK bonds take their cue from the global move higher in yields and the oil-driven inflation risk, while the Bank of England published its April 2026 FX turnover survey.

How traders might react & why

Gilts are UK government bonds and they tend to move with US Treasuries and Bunds, so when global yields rise, gilt yields usually rise too and gilt prices fall (the price/yield inverse). Higher oil prices raise inflation worries, and since inflation erodes a bond's fixed coupons, traders typically demand higher yields — hitting longer-duration gilts hardest. For a beginner: watch oil and US Treasuries as leading signals for where gilt yields head next.

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.70%
▼ -1 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.36%
▲ +5 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.70%
▲ +6 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.27%
▲ +5 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 7:00 AM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.15%
front-end anchored
US IG OAS
79 bp
credit spreads still tight
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
policy rate on hold
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
ECB steady

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$82.00
▼ -0.04%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.04
▼ -0.28%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$82.04
▼ -0.67%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.48
▼ -0.21%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$106.99
▼ -0.16%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.12
▼ -0.40%
High yield (HYG)
$79.71
▼ -0.10%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.60
▼ -0.36%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.70% ▲ +6 bp
3mo range · 4.37%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$88.52
▲ +1.67%
WTI Crude
$82.40
▲ +1.42%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$2.90
▼ -7.15%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.16
▼ -2.02%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.73
▲ +0.22%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$126.60
▲ +1.26%
Brent fund (BNO)
$50.64
▲ +1.81%
Energy sector (XLE)
$61.91
▲ +1.39%
Brent Crude
$88.52 ▲ +1.67%
3mo range · $71.57–$112.10

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,785.76
▼ -0.17%
Dow Jones
53,732.41
▼ -0.20%
Nasdaq Composite
26,729.16
▼ -0.28%
Nasdaq-100
30,046.14
▼ -0.13%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
12,417.05
▼ -0.31%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Sat, Aug 15, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$30.65
▲ +2.31%
HGRAF
$4.70
▲ +9.30%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$30.65 ▲ +2.31%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.70 ▲ +9.30%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.13