When traders lower the odds of future rate hikes, they tend to buy shorter-dated Treasuries, which pushes their prices up and yields down — remember bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. The 2Y is very sensitive to expected Fed policy, so it moves first; longer bonds like the 10Y and 30Y have more 'duration', meaning their prices swing more for a given yield change, so they react to both the policy outlook and inflation expectations.

A credit spread is the extra yield a company pays over a comparable Treasury to compensate for default risk. When spreads are tight (low), it means investors are relaxed about credit risk and demand little compensation; if fear rises, spreads widen, corporate bond prices fall relative to Treasuries, and it becomes costlier for firms to borrow. Beginners can watch spreads as a 'stress gauge' — 80bp is a comfortable, low-stress reading.

Sovereign issuance affects supply: when a country floats fewer bonds, less new paper competes for buyers, which can support prices and cap yields. For Japan, watching how much government debt the BoJ holds matters because heavy central-bank buying keeps JGB yields low — if that support looks set to fade, traders anticipate higher yields (lower prices) and often unwind carry trades funded in cheap yen.

When domestic stocks are under pressure and growth worries build, investors often rotate toward safer government bonds like gilts, pushing their prices up and yields down — the same price/yield seesaw as US Treasuries. If instead the worry is inflation, gilt yields can rise even as equities fall. Beginners should watch whether soft data nudges the BoE toward cuts: expected rate cuts tend to lift bond prices, especially at the short end where policy expectations bite hardest.