Global Markets & Fixed Income
Midday update — updated Tue, Aug 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM (Europe/London).
Top Story
Bond sell-off deepens into the US open as Iran keeps Hormuz shut
Since this morning the big change is that peace hopes have faded further — Iran now says the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until the US meets interim-deal terms, sending oil higher and driving the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high while European shares slipped.
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News Digest
The full brief, split by asset type.
Fixed Income — your focus
30-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high
The long-bond yield has climbed to 5.25%, its highest since 2007, as war and oil worries push investors to demand more compensation to hold long-dated government debt; strategists see room for the move to extend.
When a bond's yield rises, its price falls — they move inversely. Long-dated bonds like the 30-year have high 'duration', meaning their prices are the most sensitive to yield changes, so a rate spike hurts long-bond holders most. Traders typically demand higher yields when they fear inflation (here from surging oil) because inflation erodes the value of the fixed coupons they'll receive years from now.
Long end leads the sell-off, steepening the curve
With the 2-year near 4.17% but the 10-year at 4.68% and the 30-year at 5.25%, the move since this morning is concentrated at the long end, steepening the curve as oil and geopolitical risk lift term premium.
The yield curve plots yields across maturities. When long yields rise faster than short yields, the curve 'steepens'. Beginners can read a war-and-oil-driven long-end sell-off as investors pricing in more future inflation and a bigger 'term premium' (extra yield for locking money up longer), while the short end stays pinned by where they expect the central-bank policy rate to sit.
Euro-area bond yields surge alongside Treasuries
New this session: European government bond yields jumped and shares slipped as the oil spike from the Hormuz standoff spread the sell-off across the Atlantic in the European trading day.
Global government bond markets tend to move together because they share the same big drivers — oil, inflation expectations and safe-asset flows. When Treasury yields spike on inflation fears, Bund and other euro-area yields usually follow (prices fall), because traders reprice the inflation outlook everywhere at once, not just in the US.
Investment-grade spreads still tight despite the jolt
US investment-grade credit spreads (OAS) remain around 80bp, a historically tight level, showing corporate-bond risk premiums have not yet blown out even as government yields spike on geopolitics.
A credit spread is the extra yield a company pays over a same-maturity Treasury to compensate for default risk. Tight spreads (like 80bp) signal calm about corporate creditworthiness. When markets get scared, spreads usually 'widen' as investors demand more cushion; the fact they're holding here tells a beginner the stress so far is a rates/inflation story, not yet a credit-quality panic.
Central Banks & Policy
ECB's Lane: inflation outlook hangs on the US-Iran war
ECB policymaker Philip Lane said the inflation outlook is highly dependent on the US-Iran conflict, underscoring how the oil spike complicates the ECB's path with its deposit rate held at 2.25%.
Rate-hike bets dwindle even as yields climb
With Fed funds held at 3.75% (upper bound), the dollar is soft as markets pare bets on further hikes and keep focus on the Iran conflict, a reminder that policy expectations and long-end yields can move apart.
BoJ releases July current-account balances by sector
The Bank of Japan published its July current-account balances data, a routine liquidity readout that helps gauge how much cash banks are parking at the central bank.
Equities & Global Markets
Wall Street opens soft as oil rises and retail earnings loom
US stock indexes slipped with European shares as higher oil weighs on sentiment, and traders await results from retailers including Home Depot; premarket movers spanned Home Depot, Tesla, Fabrinet and Duolingo.
Oil tops $91 as market prices a prolonged Hormuz crisis
Crude hit a near three-week high as US-Iran peace hopes faded and the market began pricing an extended shipping-chokepoint disruption, the key fresh driver behind today's bond and equity moves.
Asia & China
China reroutes oil tankers and returns to stockpiling
China's state shippers are deploying oil tankers to avoid Gulf chokepoints, and separate data show China surprised markets by returning to crude stockpiling in July — signs of how Asia is adapting to the Hormuz risk.
Indian shares dip as oil tops $91 and ceasefire expires
Indian equities fell as the US-Iran ceasefire lapsed and oil climbed, showing how energy-importing Asian markets are pressured by the higher crude price.
UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE
UK gilts caught in the global long-end sell-off
No fresh UK-specific data has landed since this morning, but with US and euro-area yields surging on the oil spike, gilts are moving in sympathy as the same inflation fear reprices long-dated debt globally.
Gilts (UK government bonds) rarely swim against a global tide. When Treasuries and Bunds sell off on an oil-driven inflation scare, gilt prices typically fall and their yields rise too, because a higher oil price threatens UK inflation and makes the BoE's job harder. Remember the inverse: rising yields mean falling prices, and the longest-dated gilts (highest duration) move the most.
Bonds & Rates
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Government bond yields
Policy rates & credit spreads
Bond prices — funds & ETFs
Oil & Energy
The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.
Crude benchmarks
Refined products & gas
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Equities
Global and US index levels.
Index levels
My Portfolio
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