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Global Markets & Fixed Income

Morning brief · Overnight + Asia — updated Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 7:00 AM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Fed minutes reveal a hawkish tilt: some officials would hike if inflation sticks

Minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting showed several officials saw a case for RAISING rates if inflation fails to cool, landing as long-dated Treasury yields keep climbing and squeezing borrowing costs across the economy.

Sources: CNBC · US Federal Reserve · CNBC
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News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

Long-dated Treasury yields keep surging, lifting borrowing costs

A sell-off that began in June has pushed long-term Treasury yields higher, driven by debt supply, AI-related spending and energy costs — turning the bond market into a political problem for Main Street borrowers.

How traders might react & why

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions: when investors sell Treasuries, prices fall and yields rise. Long-dated bonds have the most 'duration' (price sensitivity to rate moves), so they fall hardest in a sell-off. Rising government yields ripple into mortgage and corporate borrowing costs because those are priced off Treasuries. Traders typically watch whether the move is about growth/inflation (a 'real yield' story) or simply too much bond supply to absorb.

Sources: CNBC · CNBC
Rates · US Treasuries

US yields edge lower despite Iran worries and broader sell-off

In the latest session, Treasury yields dipped slightly even as Middle East tensions rose, showing bonds can still catch a modest safe-haven bid within a broader upward yield trend.

How traders might react & why

Government bonds are a classic 'safe haven': when geopolitical risk flares, some investors buy Treasuries, pushing prices up and yields down. That safety demand can temporarily offset the supply-driven selling pressure. Beginners should note these tug-of-wars — a single down day in yields doesn't reverse a months-long rising-yield trend.

Sources: Reuters · CNBC
Credit · IG spreads

Investment-grade spreads stay tight at 82bp despite yield turmoil

The US investment-grade option-adjusted spread sits around 82 basis points, signalling that credit investors still see low default risk even as underlying government yields rise.

How traders might react & why

A credit spread is the EXTRA yield over Treasuries that investors demand to hold corporate bonds — compensation for default risk. A tight (small) spread like 82bp means credit markets are calm and confident. If economic fears grew, spreads would WIDEN, pushing corporate bond prices down independently of Treasury moves. Watching spreads separately from yields helps beginners tell a 'rates' story from a 'credit-risk' story.

Sources: CNBC
Rates · China

China defies the global yield surge, boosting its diversification appeal

Chinese government bond yields have stayed low while yields elsewhere jumped, drawing interest from investors seeking bonds that behave differently from US and European debt.

How traders might react & why

Bonds in different countries don't always move together. When Chinese yields stay low as global yields rise, Chinese bond prices hold up better, offering 'diversification.' Low local yields often reflect softer domestic growth/inflation and supportive central-bank policy. For beginners, this shows why global bond exposure can smooth returns — but low yields also mean less income (carry) for holding them.

Sources: CNBC
Credit · Private markets

Anthropic's pre-IPO credit facility set to climb past $10 billion

Banks are lining up to expand the AI firm's revolving credit line above $10bn, a sign of strong appetite to lend to marquee tech names ahead of a potential IPO.

How traders might react & why

A revolving credit facility is a flexible corporate loan — part of the private-credit and bank-lending market that sits alongside public bonds. Heavy bank demand to participate signals ample liquidity and risk appetite. When lenders compete for deals, borrowing terms loosen, which is generally consistent with tight credit spreads elsewhere in the market.

Sources: Bloomberg

Central Banks & Policy

FOMC

July minutes show some officials open to a rate hike

The Fed released minutes from its July 28–29 meeting revealing that some policymakers saw a need to raise rates if inflation does not cool, keeping a hawkish option on the table.

FX · Fed path

Dollar range-bound as markets price a dovish Fed response

The dollar traded in a tight range as investors leaned toward expecting eventual Fed easing, even as the minutes flagged upside inflation risks.

Sources: Reuters
BoJ

BoJ releases July current-account balances by sector

The Bank of Japan published its July current-account (reserve) data, a routine statistical update on liquidity parked at the central bank.

Sources: Bank of Japan

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

Tech selloff drags Wall Street lower as bond yields climb

Rising Treasury yields pressured technology shares, dragging major US indexes down as investors reassessed richly valued growth stocks.

Sources: Reuters · Forexlive
Energy

Energy stocks hit record as oil rises on fading deal hopes

The S&P 500 Energy sector index climbed 1.8% to its first all-time high since March as oil rallied on a hard-line US stance toward Iran.

Sources: Bloomberg · Reuters
Commodities

Gold edges below $4,400 as long-dated bonds slump

Spot gold slipped as reduced rate-hike expectations and a weak long-bond market pulled the metal off recent highs, with the dollar steady near a three-month low.

Sources: Bloomberg

Asia & China

Rates

Chinese bonds stand apart from the global yield spike

Overnight, Chinese government bond yields remained low even as global yields surged, reinforcing China's appeal as a portfolio diversifier for international investors.

Sources: CNBC
Equities

Goldman flags China stocks poised to gain from AI hardware exports

Goldman Sachs highlighted Chinese companies that could benefit from a new wave of AI-related hardware exports, stressing that execution matters more than the macro backdrop.

Sources: CNBC
Oil

Oil steadies in Asian trade as US-Iran war outlook weighed

Crude prices held steady overnight after settling near a four-week high, as traders assessed escalating Middle East tensions and their supply implications.

Sources: Reuters · Reuters

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

UK inflation picks up after July surge in household energy bills

UK inflation accelerated as household energy bills jumped in July, complicating the Bank of England's path and keeping upward pressure on gilt yields.

How traders might react & why

Higher inflation is generally bad for government bonds (gilts): it erodes the real value of their fixed coupons, so investors demand higher yields, pushing gilt prices down. Hotter inflation also makes it harder for the Bank of England to cut rates, which supports higher short-dated gilt yields. Beginners can think of it this way — sticky inflation usually means 'higher for longer' policy rates and softer bond prices.

Sources: Reuters

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.70%
▼ -0 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.35%
▼ -1 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.65%
▼ -5 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.19%
▼ -9 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 7:00 AM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.19%
policy-sensitive short end
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
current policy rate
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
ECB benchmark
US IG OAS
82 bp
investment-grade spread

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$82.06
▲ +0.05%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.38
▲ +0.48%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$83.02
▲ +1.67%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.82
▲ +0.48%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$107.51
▲ +0.46%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.57
▲ +0.69%
High yield (HYG)
$79.71
▲ +0.23%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.60
▲ +0.18%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.65% ▼ -5 bp
3mo range · 4.37%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$92.00
▲ +0.41%
WTI Crude
$84.62
▼ -1.41%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$2.95
▼ -9.36%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.31
▼ -3.22%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.80
▼ -0.39%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$130.91
▲ +0.19%
Brent fund (BNO)
$52.32
▲ +0.40%
Energy sector (XLE)
$63.58
▼ -0.16%
Brent Crude
$92.00 ▲ +0.41%
3mo range · $71.57–$105.02

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,707.98
▲ +0.21%
Dow Jones
53,463.05
▲ +0.22%
Nasdaq Composite
26,331.09
▲ +0.16%
Nasdaq-100
29,426.02
▼ -0.22%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
11,738.23
▼ -2.12%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 6:03 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$29.38
▼ -3.85%
HGRAF
$4.46
▼ -0.22%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$29.38 ▼ -3.85%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.46 ▼ -0.22%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.13