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Global Markets & Fixed Income

Morning brief · Overnight + Asia — updated Fri, Aug 21, 2026 · 7:00 AM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Long-dated Treasury yields climb back, testing the 'Bessent put'

US long-term yields have reversed most of their post-refunding drop this week, with the 10-year back near 4.70% and the 30-year around 5.25%, as traders question how much support the Treasury can lend the long end. Sticky inflation worries flagged in the latest Fed minutes are reinforcing the move.

Sources: Forexlive · CNBC
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News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

Long-end yields rebound, challenging Treasury support

10-year yields have recovered to roughly 4.70% and 30-year yields to about 5.25%, erasing much of the drop that followed the Treasury's refunding announcement.

How traders might react & why

Remember the core rule: bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so rising yields mean bond prices are falling. Long-dated bonds (10s and 30s) have high 'duration,' meaning their prices swing the most when yields move — so a back-up in yields hits long-bond holders hardest. When traders doubt that officials will step in to cap yields (the so-called 'Bessent put'), they demand a higher yield to hold that interest-rate risk, pushing prices down further.

Sources: Forexlive · CNBC
Rates · Fed minutes

July minutes show some officials open to a rate hike if inflation sticks

Minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting revealed that some policymakers saw a case for raising rates should inflation fail to cool.

How traders might react & why

Hawkish minutes (talk of possible hikes) typically push short-dated yields like the 2-year higher, because that maturity is most sensitive to expected central-bank policy. Traders reprice the odds of higher policy rates and sell front-end bonds; if long yields rise less, the yield curve can flatten. For a beginner, this shows how expectations about future Fed moves — not just today's rate — drive bond prices.

Sources: CNBC · Federal Reserve
Credit · Investment grade

US IG credit spreads hold tight near 81bp despite yield swings

The investment-grade option-adjusted spread sits around 81 basis points, signalling that corporate credit remains calm even as government yields whipsaw.

How traders might react & why

A credit spread is the extra yield investors demand to hold a corporate bond instead of a 'risk-free' Treasury; tight spreads (like 81bp) mean investors see low default risk and are comfortable holding corporate debt. When spreads stay tight while Treasury yields rise, it tells you the sell-off is about interest-rate risk (duration), not fear of company defaults — a useful distinction for a beginner separating rate risk from credit risk.

Sources: CNBC
Rates · China

Chinese government bonds defy the global yield surge

Chinese government bond yields have stayed low while yields elsewhere climb, boosting China's appeal as a diversifier and relative safe haven.

How traders might react & why

When yields fall (or stay low) as they rise elsewhere, Chinese bond prices hold up better — the price/yield inverse again. Investors seeking to diversify move into markets whose bonds move differently from US Treasuries, which can lower overall portfolio swings. The low-yield backdrop also reflects China's easier policy and softer growth, versus inflation worries pushing Western yields up.

Sources: CNBC

Central Banks & Policy

FOMC

Fed minutes lean hawkish on lingering inflation

The July FOMC minutes showed officials would consider a rate hike if inflation does not ease, keeping the door open on tighter policy with the funds rate upper bound at 3.75%.

Sources: CNBC · Federal Reserve
Fed · Supervision

Fed approves NatWest application and issues enforcement actions

The Federal Reserve Board approved an application by National Westminster Bank Plc and separately issued and terminated several bank enforcement actions.

BoJ

BoJ releases July current-account balances by sector

The Bank of Japan published its monthly current-account balances data, a routine window into banking-system liquidity and reserves.

Sources: Bank of Japan

Equities & Global Markets

Tech

Micron CEO pushes back on the memory bear case

In an interview with Jim Cramer, Micron's CEO countered concerns about a memory downturn, with three key takeaways lifting confidence in the stock.

Sources: CNBC
Movers

Walmart, Deere, CrowdStrike and Moderna among biggest movers

US stocks saw large midday swings in names including Walmart, Deere, CrowdStrike and Moderna during Wednesday's session.

Sources: CNBC
Autos

Hyundai to lift US production at new Georgia plant

Hyundai's CEO told CNBC the automaker will boost output at its Georgia metaplant as part of a $26 billion US investment plan through 2028.

Sources: CNBC

Asia & China

Rates

China's low bond yields draw diversification flows

With Chinese government yields staying low amid a global surge, investors are eyeing China as a safe-haven and diversification play.

Sources: CNBC
Equities

Goldman flags China stocks set to gain from AI hardware exports

Goldman Sachs highlighted Chinese names positioned to benefit from a new wave of AI-related hardware exports, stressing execution over macro trends.

Sources: CNBC
Tech

Chinese humanoid robots still trail humans on the job

Chinese humanoid robots continue to struggle to match human efficiency across most labour tasks, underscoring the gap between hype and capability.

Sources: CNBC
Energy

China boosts Russian crude imports, squeezing India's refiners

China is ramping up purchases of Russian crude, crowding out India's refiners, while Saudi Aramco sold barrels loading outside Hormuz to Chinese buyers.

Sources: Reuters · Reuters

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · Global rates

UK gilts caught in the global long-end sell-off

With US and other long-dated yields pushing higher this week, UK gilts face the same upward yield pressure from the worldwide bond sell-off driven by debt supply and inflation worries.

How traders might react & why

Gilts don't trade in isolation — when big markets like US Treasuries sell off and yields rise, global investors demand higher yields on UK long bonds too, so gilt prices fall (the price/yield inverse). Long-maturity gilts have the most duration, so they drop the most for a given yield move. For a beginner, this shows how UK borrowing costs can rise on overseas news even before the Bank of England does anything.

Sources: Forexlive · CNBC
Gilts · BoE

Fed clears NatWest application, a nod to UK banking links

The Federal Reserve approved an application by National Westminster Bank Plc, a reminder of the tight cross-border ties between UK lenders and US markets that influence gilt-market funding conditions.

How traders might react & why

Bank regulatory approvals aren't a direct gilt-market event, but healthy, well-capitalised UK banks are big buyers and holders of gilts. Confidence in the banking system generally supports demand for government bonds, which helps keep yields lower (and prices higher). Beginners can think of banks as a steady source of demand that sits underneath the gilt market.

Sources: Federal Reserve

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Fri, Aug 21, 2026 · 6:02 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.70%
▲ +0 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.39%
▲ +3 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.70%
▲ +4 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.24%
▲ +4 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Fri, Aug 21, 2026 · 7:00 AM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.19%
policy-sensitive front end
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
policy rate on hold
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
ECB policy rate
US IG OAS
81 bp
investment-grade credit spread, still tight

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Fri, Aug 21, 2026 · 6:02 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$82.02
▼ -0.05%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.00
▼ -0.41%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$82.34
▼ -0.82%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.49
▼ -0.34%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$107.52
▲ +0.01%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.06
▼ -0.48%
High yield (HYG)
$79.56
▼ -0.19%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.58
▲ +0.13%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.70% ▲ +4 bp
3mo range · 4.37%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Fri, Aug 21, 2026 · 6:02 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$93.49
▼ -0.31%
WTI Crude
$86.41
▼ -1.62%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$3.01
▼ -7.81%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.35
▼ -2.92%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.75
▲ +0.62%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$134.54
▲ +2.77%
Brent fund (BNO)
$53.49
▲ +2.24%
Energy sector (XLE)
$63.75
▲ +0.27%
Brent Crude
$93.49 ▼ -0.31%
3mo range · $71.57–$103.54

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Fri, Aug 21, 2026 · 6:02 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,641.16
▼ -0.87%
Dow Jones
52,759.21
▼ -1.32%
Nasdaq Composite
26,067.17
▼ -1.00%
Nasdaq-100
29,213.16
▼ -0.72%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
11,800.02
▲ +0.53%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Fri, Aug 21, 2026 · 6:02 AM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$28.80
▼ -1.96%
HGRAF
$4.35
▼ -2.47%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$28.80 ▼ -1.96%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.35 ▼ -2.47%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.13