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Global Markets & Fixed Income

Midday update — updated Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 1:00 PM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Long-dated Treasuries stay under pressure as Fed minutes reveal hike risk

Wednesday's July FOMC minutes showed some officials would back a rate HIKE if inflation fails to cool, and that has kept the long end of the US curve (10Y 4.71%, 30Y 5.28%) heavy into the midday session, spilling over into borrowing costs. This is the key change since this morning: traders are now digesting an explicitly hawkish Fed alongside a fresh tech-led equity wobble.

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Where to look next

News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

Fed minutes flag a possible hike; long end stays heavy

The July 28-29 minutes, released yesterday evening, showed officials saw a need to HIKE if inflation doesn't cool — a hawkish surprise now shaping the US session, with the 10Y at 4.71% and 30Y at 5.28%.

How traders might react & why

A bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions, so 'yields higher' means prices are falling. When a central bank signals it may raise rates, traders sell bonds — especially long-dated ones — because higher policy rates make today's fixed coupons look less attractive. Long bonds have the most 'duration' (price sensitivity to rate moves), which is why the 30Y is hit hardest.

Rates · Curve

Steep long end as 30Y tops 5.28%, 2Y near 4.19%

With the 2Y at 4.19% and the 30Y at 5.28%, the gap between short and long yields remains wide — a 'steep' curve driven by long-end selling tied to debt supply, AI/energy spending and hike fears.

How traders might react & why

The yield curve plots yields across maturities. Short yields track expected central-bank policy; long yields also carry a 'term premium' for holding risk over many years. When the long end sells off faster than the short end, the curve steepens — often a sign investors want more compensation to lend long, not a bet on imminent rate cuts.

Rates · China

China bonds defy the global yield surge

Fresh this morning (Asia session): Chinese government bond yields have stayed low even as US and European yields climb, boosting China's appeal as a diversifier and relative safe haven.

How traders might react & why

Yields reflect each country's own growth and inflation outlook and central-bank stance. China's softer domestic demand and easier policy keep its yields low, so its bonds move differently from US Treasuries. For a beginner, this shows why holding bonds from several countries can smooth returns — when one market sells off, another may hold firm.

Credit · Private

Anthropic pre-IPO credit facility set to pass $10bn

The AI firm's revolving credit line is being expanded past $10bn as banks jockey for IPO roles — a sign of how much corporate borrowing is flowing into the AI build-out.

How traders might react & why

A revolver is a flexible corporate loan. Heavy borrowing by high-profile firms adds to overall credit demand; when lots of new debt competes for investors' cash, it can nudge up yields and spreads (the extra yield over government bonds that investors demand for taking company risk). Wider spreads mean investors want more reward for lending to companies rather than to the government.

Central Banks & Policy

FOMC

July minutes turn hawkish; Fed funds upper still 3.75%

The minutes show a faction ready to hike if inflation proves sticky. Policy is unchanged for now (fed funds upper bound 3.75%), but the balance of risk has shifted toward tightening, not easing.

ECB · Germany

Bundesbank: German economy may only grow slightly this quarter

New this morning: the Bundesbank warns Q3 growth will be weak, with low river water levels hampering industry and exports. The ECB deposit rate sits at 2.25%.

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

Tech selloff weighs on Wall Street as yields climb

US stocks are pressured by a tech pullback while bond yields rise — the higher-yield, higher-discount-rate backdrop is squeezing richly valued growth names into the US open.

Energy

Energy stocks at record as oil hits multi-week high

The S&P 500 energy index hit an all-time high as oil rose on Middle East supply worries and fading deal hopes; crude has since climbed to a roughly 3-week high.

Asia & China

Macro

China bonds hold firm, drawing safe-haven flows

Overnight in Asia, Chinese government bond yields stayed low against a global surge, reinforcing their diversification appeal for international investors.

Commodities

China lifts Russian crude imports, squeezing India's refiners

New this morning: China is buying more discounted Russian crude, tightening supply available to Indian refiners amid the broader Middle East supply tension.

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

UK inflation picks up on July energy bill surge

Yesterday's data showed UK inflation accelerating after a July jump in household energy bills, complicating the Bank of England's path and keeping upward pressure on gilt yields into the European session.

How traders might react & why

Higher inflation is bad for bonds because it erodes the real value of their fixed coupons and makes the central bank likelier to keep rates high. Traders typically sell gilts on a hot inflation print, pushing gilt prices down and yields up. Sticky inflation also trims hopes of near-term BoE rate cuts, which weighs most on longer-dated gilts through their greater duration.

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.70%
▼ -0 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.35%
▼ -1 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.65%
▼ -5 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.19%
▼ -9 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 1:00 PM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.19%
hike risk in play
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
on hold
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
hike back on table

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$82.06
▲ +0.05%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.38
▲ +0.48%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$83.02
▲ +1.67%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.82
▲ +0.48%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$107.51
▲ +0.46%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.57
▲ +0.69%
High yield (HYG)
$79.71
▲ +0.23%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.58
▲ +0.13%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.65% ▼ -5 bp
3mo range · 4.37%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$94.38
▲ +3.01%
WTI Crude
$87.18
▲ +1.57%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$2.98
▼ -8.31%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.37
▼ -1.95%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.76
▼ -2.03%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$130.91
▲ +0.19%
Brent fund (BNO)
$52.32
▲ +0.40%
Energy sector (XLE)
$63.58
▼ -0.16%
Brent Crude
$94.38 ▲ +3.01%
3mo range · $71.57–$105.02

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,707.98
▲ +0.21%
Dow Jones
53,463.05
▲ +0.22%
Nasdaq Composite
26,331.09
▲ +0.16%
Nasdaq-100
29,426.02
▼ -0.22%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
11,738.23
▼ -2.12%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Thu, Aug 20, 2026 · 12:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$29.39
▲ +0.05%
HGRAF
$4.46
▼ -0.22%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$29.39 ▲ +0.05%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.46 ▼ -0.22%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.13