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Global Markets & Fixed Income

Evening wrap · Europe + US close — updated Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 8:00 PM (Europe/London).

Top Story

Driving everything

Treasury yields grind higher as US-Iran tensions and pricier oil close the week

US 10-year yields ticked up to around 4.66% after Washington threatened Iran with more economic sanctions and an indefinite blockade, while oil rallied and equities came off record highs. Higher energy prices revive inflation worries that keep upward pressure on government bond yields into the weekend.

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News Digest

The full brief, split by asset type.

Fixed Income — your focus

First, the one rule that explains everything below: a bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. When yields go up, the price of bonds you already own goes down (and vice-versa). Longer-dated bonds move more — that sensitivity is called duration.
Rates · US Treasuries

10-year yield edges up to ~4.66% on fresh Iran sanction threats

The benchmark 10-year note rose about 2 basis points as the US threatened more economic pressure on Iran and oil prices climbed, reviving inflation concerns at the long end of the curve.

How traders might react & why

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so a rising yield means Treasury prices fell. Traders typically sell bonds when higher oil threatens more inflation, because inflation erodes the fixed coupons they receive; longer-dated bonds (more 'duration') fall hardest since their far-off cash flows are most sensitive to that repricing. This is mechanics, not advice.

Curve · US

Curve stays upward-sloping with 2s at 4.20% and 30s at 5.24%

The 2-year sits near 4.20% while the 30-year is around 5.24%, leaving a positively sloped curve as long-end yields carry more of the inflation and term-premium burden.

How traders might react & why

The 'yield curve' just plots yields from short to long maturities. When long yields (30Y) sit well above short yields (2Y), it's a normal, upward-sloping curve — investors demand extra yield to lock money up for longer and to absorb inflation risk. Beginners watch the gap: it widens ('steepens') when the long end sells off on inflation/supply worries, as oil pressure is doing here. Educational, not a recommendation.

Credit · Investment Grade

IG credit spreads hold tight near 79 bp

The US investment-grade option-adjusted spread sits around 79 basis points, a historically tight level signalling that corporate borrowing costs over Treasuries remain contained despite geopolitical noise.

How traders might react & why

A credit spread is the extra yield a company pays above a same-maturity Treasury to compensate for default risk. A tight spread (~79 bp) means investors are relaxed about corporate defaults and happy to hold company bonds; if fear rose, spreads would 'widen' and those bond prices would fall. Watching spreads tells beginners how much stress markets see in credit versus safe government debt. Explanation only.

Rates · Japan (JGBs)

BoJ data: July corporate goods prices and its JGB holdings updated

The Bank of Japan released its July Corporate Goods Price Index and refreshed data on JGBs held on its balance sheet, key inputs for the outlook on Japanese government bond yields and BoJ policy normalisation.

How traders might react & why

Producer-price data like the CGPI hints at future inflation, which feeds expectations for BoJ policy and JGB yields. Because the BoJ owns a huge share of JGBs, its holdings shape how 'free' the market price of those bonds is — heavy buying keeps yields low. If inflation runs hot, traders anticipate less BoJ support and JGB yields drift up (prices down). This matters globally via the carry trade, where investors borrow cheap yen to buy higher-yielding bonds abroad. Educational.

Central Banks & Policy

FOMC

Goolsbee says latest inflation data looks better

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the most recent inflation figures were improved, a dovish-leaning remark with the fed funds ceiling currently at 3.75%.

Fed · Supervision

Fed issues enforcement action tied to former Regions Bank employee

The Federal Reserve Board announced an enforcement action involving a former employee of Regions Bank, part of its routine supervisory duties.

ECB

ECB steady at 2.25% deposit rate heading into late-August lull

With the deposit rate at 2.25%, the ECB's public calendar is light — highlighted by a community Europa Open Air concert on 20 August — as European bond markets close a week dominated by oil and Iran risk.

Equities & Global Markets

Risk

S&P and Nasdaq slip from records as oil saps risk appetite

US indices drifted lower into the close — the S&P down about 0.2% and Nasdaq off roughly 0.5% — trimming a positive week after Thursday's record S&P finish as higher crude weighed on sentiment.

Europe

European shares flat but set for weekly loss as Iran tensions lift oil

European equities closed roughly unchanged on Friday yet headed for a weekly decline, with energy-driven inflation fears offsetting resilience elsewhere.

M&A

Energy dealmaking chatter: Phillips 66 and Marathon reportedly held talks

Semafor reported Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum held takeover talks, keeping M&A a theme even as macro risk dominates the tape.

Asia & China

Macro

Indian shares end week lower as higher crude tempers risk appetite

Indian equities finished the week down as rising oil prices — a headwind for an oil-importing economy — dampened sentiment across the region's session.

China · Geopolitics

Philippines calls joint oil and gas exploration with China a 'distinct possibility'

The Philippine president said joint energy exploration with China is a real possibility, a potential thaw in South China Sea tensions to watch overnight.

Energy · Flows

Russia's share of India's oil imports hit a record in July

Russian crude made up a record share of Indian oil imports in July, underlining shifting global energy trade routes amid Middle East disruption.

UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE

Gilts · BoE

BoE publishes April FX turnover survey as gilts track global risk-off tone

The Bank of England released results of its semi-annual London FX turnover survey; with no fresh UK data driving prices, gilts largely followed the global move where firmer oil and Iran risk lifted core government bond yields into the close.

How traders might react & why

UK government bonds (gilts) usually move in sympathy with US Treasuries and German Bunds because global inflation and rate expectations are linked. When oil rises and Treasuries sell off, gilt yields tend to rise too (so gilt prices fall) — remember the price/yield inverse. FX turnover data doesn't move prices directly, but a weaker or stronger pound feeds inflation expectations, which in turn nudge gilt yields and BoE rate bets. This is how the pieces connect, not trading advice.

Bonds & Rates

Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.

Government bond yields

What a bond pays you if you hold it to maturity. Moves are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) — and remember, a higher yield means a lower price for bonds you already own. Prices as of Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
US 3M Bill
3.70%
▼ -0 bp
US 5Y Treasury
4.36%
▲ +5 bp
US 10Y Treasury
4.69%
▲ +5 bp
US 30Y Treasury
5.27%
▲ +5 bp

Policy rates & credit spreads

Verified levels behind this brief (FRED / official sources), as of Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 8:00 PM.
US 2Y Treasury
4.20%
policy-sensitive front end
US IG OAS
79 bp
investment-grade credit spread
Fed Funds (upper)
3.75%
current policy ceiling
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
ECB policy rate

Bond prices — funds & ETFs

The actual price of a diversified basket of bonds, which is what a bond position is worth day to day. Longer-dated baskets (TLT) swing most when yields move. Prices as of Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
1–3Y Treasuries (SHY)
$82.02
▼ -0.01%
7–10Y Treasuries (IEF)
$93.03
▼ -0.28%
20Y+ Treasuries (TLT)
$81.95
▼ -0.77%
US Aggregate (AGG)
$97.45
▼ -0.25%
TIPS · inflation (TIP)
$107.00
▼ -0.15%
IG corporates (LQD)
$106.08
▼ -0.45%
High yield (HYG)
$79.69
▼ -0.13%
UK gilts (IGLT.L)
GBP 9.60
▼ -0.36%
US 10Y Treasury yield
4.69% ▲ +5 bp
3mo range · 4.37%–4.74%

Oil & Energy

The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.

Crude benchmarks

Brent is the global seaborne benchmark; WTI is the US one. The gap between them tells you how tight US supply is versus the rest of the world. Prices as of Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
Brent Crude
$88.61
▲ +1.77%
WTI Crude
$82.41
▲ +1.43%

Refined products & gas

What crude turns into — these feed pump prices, diesel costs and heating bills, so they drive the inflation numbers central banks react to.
Gasoline RBOB ($/gal)
$2.90
▼ -7.23%
Heating oil ($/gal)
$4.16
▼ -2.12%
Natural gas ($/MMBtu)
$2.73
▲ +0.00%

Energy funds

Tradeable proxies for the barrel and for energy equities.
WTI fund (USO)
$126.52
▲ +1.19%
Brent fund (BNO)
$50.59
▲ +1.72%
Energy sector (XLE)
$61.96
▲ +1.47%
Brent Crude
$88.61 ▲ +1.77%
3mo range · $71.57–$112.10

Equities

Global and US index levels.

Index levels

Prices as of Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
S&P 500
7,782.64
▼ -0.21%
Dow Jones
53,779.78
▼ -0.11%
Nasdaq Composite
26,691.47
▼ -0.42%
Nasdaq-100
29,988.18
▼ -0.32%
PHLX Semis (SOX)
12,326.41
▼ -1.04%

My Portfolio

The two positions you actually hold.

Your positions

Prices as of Fri, Aug 14, 2026 · 7:03 PM · refreshed 3× daily.
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
$30.65
▲ +2.31%
HGRAF
$4.51
▲ +4.88%
VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM.L)
$30.65 ▲ +2.31%
3mo range · $26.47–$34.65
HGRAF
$4.51 ▲ +4.88%
3mo range · $3.11–$5.13