Global Markets & Fixed Income
Morning brief · Overnight + Asia — updated Fri, Aug 21, 2026 · 7:00 AM (Europe/London).
Top Story
Long-dated Treasury yields climb back, testing the 'Bessent put'
US long-term yields have reversed most of their post-refunding drop this week, with the 10-year back near 4.70% and the 30-year around 5.25%, as traders question how much support the Treasury can lend the long end. Sticky inflation worries flagged in the latest Fed minutes are reinforcing the move.
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The full brief, split by asset type.
Fixed Income — your focus
Long-end yields rebound, challenging Treasury support
10-year yields have recovered to roughly 4.70% and 30-year yields to about 5.25%, erasing much of the drop that followed the Treasury's refunding announcement.
Remember the core rule: bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so rising yields mean bond prices are falling. Long-dated bonds (10s and 30s) have high 'duration,' meaning their prices swing the most when yields move — so a back-up in yields hits long-bond holders hardest. When traders doubt that officials will step in to cap yields (the so-called 'Bessent put'), they demand a higher yield to hold that interest-rate risk, pushing prices down further.
July minutes show some officials open to a rate hike if inflation sticks
Minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting revealed that some policymakers saw a case for raising rates should inflation fail to cool.
Hawkish minutes (talk of possible hikes) typically push short-dated yields like the 2-year higher, because that maturity is most sensitive to expected central-bank policy. Traders reprice the odds of higher policy rates and sell front-end bonds; if long yields rise less, the yield curve can flatten. For a beginner, this shows how expectations about future Fed moves — not just today's rate — drive bond prices.
US IG credit spreads hold tight near 81bp despite yield swings
The investment-grade option-adjusted spread sits around 81 basis points, signalling that corporate credit remains calm even as government yields whipsaw.
A credit spread is the extra yield investors demand to hold a corporate bond instead of a 'risk-free' Treasury; tight spreads (like 81bp) mean investors see low default risk and are comfortable holding corporate debt. When spreads stay tight while Treasury yields rise, it tells you the sell-off is about interest-rate risk (duration), not fear of company defaults — a useful distinction for a beginner separating rate risk from credit risk.
Chinese government bonds defy the global yield surge
Chinese government bond yields have stayed low while yields elsewhere climb, boosting China's appeal as a diversifier and relative safe haven.
When yields fall (or stay low) as they rise elsewhere, Chinese bond prices hold up better — the price/yield inverse again. Investors seeking to diversify move into markets whose bonds move differently from US Treasuries, which can lower overall portfolio swings. The low-yield backdrop also reflects China's easier policy and softer growth, versus inflation worries pushing Western yields up.
Central Banks & Policy
Fed minutes lean hawkish on lingering inflation
The July FOMC minutes showed officials would consider a rate hike if inflation does not ease, keeping the door open on tighter policy with the funds rate upper bound at 3.75%.
Fed approves NatWest application and issues enforcement actions
The Federal Reserve Board approved an application by National Westminster Bank Plc and separately issued and terminated several bank enforcement actions.
BoJ releases July current-account balances by sector
The Bank of Japan published its monthly current-account balances data, a routine window into banking-system liquidity and reserves.
Equities & Global Markets
Micron CEO pushes back on the memory bear case
In an interview with Jim Cramer, Micron's CEO countered concerns about a memory downturn, with three key takeaways lifting confidence in the stock.
Walmart, Deere, CrowdStrike and Moderna among biggest movers
US stocks saw large midday swings in names including Walmart, Deere, CrowdStrike and Moderna during Wednesday's session.
Hyundai to lift US production at new Georgia plant
Hyundai's CEO told CNBC the automaker will boost output at its Georgia metaplant as part of a $26 billion US investment plan through 2028.
Asia & China
China's low bond yields draw diversification flows
With Chinese government yields staying low amid a global surge, investors are eyeing China as a safe-haven and diversification play.
Goldman flags China stocks set to gain from AI hardware exports
Goldman Sachs highlighted Chinese names positioned to benefit from a new wave of AI-related hardware exports, stressing execution over macro trends.
Chinese humanoid robots still trail humans on the job
Chinese humanoid robots continue to struggle to match human efficiency across most labour tasks, underscoring the gap between hype and capability.
UK Fixed Income — Gilts & BoE
UK gilts caught in the global long-end sell-off
With US and other long-dated yields pushing higher this week, UK gilts face the same upward yield pressure from the worldwide bond sell-off driven by debt supply and inflation worries.
Gilts don't trade in isolation — when big markets like US Treasuries sell off and yields rise, global investors demand higher yields on UK long bonds too, so gilt prices fall (the price/yield inverse). Long-maturity gilts have the most duration, so they drop the most for a given yield move. For a beginner, this shows how UK borrowing costs can rise on overseas news even before the Bank of England does anything.
Fed clears NatWest application, a nod to UK banking links
The Federal Reserve approved an application by National Westminster Bank Plc, a reminder of the tight cross-border ties between UK lenders and US markets that influence gilt-market funding conditions.
Bank regulatory approvals aren't a direct gilt-market event, but healthy, well-capitalised UK banks are big buyers and holders of gilts. Confidence in the banking system generally supports demand for government bonds, which helps keep yields lower (and prices higher). Beginners can think of banks as a steady source of demand that sits underneath the gilt market.
Bonds & Rates
Treasury yields, policy rates, credit spreads and bond fund prices.
Government bond yields
Policy rates & credit spreads
Bond prices — funds & ETFs
Oil & Energy
The whole energy complex — crude, refined products, gas and energy funds.
Crude benchmarks
Refined products & gas
Energy funds
Equities
Global and US index levels.
Index levels
My Portfolio
The two positions you actually hold.